Pro-establishment narrative

Though it does seem a bit paradoxical that the US federal government has brought legal action against a foreign ally already known to be corrupt, Washington was just acting pragmatically to maintain its partnership with Honduras as long as Hernández was the country's leader. Now that he has left office, there's no reason not to hold him accountable for his wrongdoing.

Establishment-critical narrative

Due to its own economic interests in Honduras and his hawkish rhetoric about the War on Drugs, the US has for too long paid no heed to suspicions against Juan Orlando Hernández that the US Dept. of Justice raised during his entire presidency. Though he may be sentenced to life in prison, Hernández is merely a piece of a corrupt system that America refuses to change.

Narrative A

The US is in a new space race against other countries, including China and India, but this one isn't about science — it's a gold rush to make up for plundering Earth's resources. The Moon can provide valuable supplies of ice water and other resources. Rather than solving problems on Earth, the world's great powers have shifted their competition into space, which will cause instability at home on our pale blue dot.

Narrative B

This mission isn't a chapter in some space race — it's a sign of how two of the world's great powers can cooperate. Chinese scientists will be able to use the technical equipment on board to carry out various astronomical observations, while US experts previously were able to use an ultraviolet telescope on China's Chang'e 3 lunar lander. Contrary to apocalyptic predictions, the Moon will not be the next site of a worldwide conflict.

Nerd narrative

There's an 11% chance that China will land the next person on the Moon, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

It is the job of the Home Secretary to keep the UK population safe, and the risk of allowing a former active Islamic State group member back into the country would set a dangerous precedent. If individuals leave the UK to join a terrorist organization, they should not be expected to be allowed to return to the country that they betrayed and sought to undermine.

Establishment-critical narrative

If Begum was white and of ethnically British origin, the question of her citizenship would never have been raised. Begum was exploited and horrifically abused for years, and by the age of 19 had found herself a widowed mother who had lost three children. The reality is that, whether we like it or not, she is UK-born and raised. Begum deserves to — like any member of British society — face the responsibilities of her crimes in the UK.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 25K deaths will occur as a result of terrorism in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Nicolas Maduro's government has left Venezuelans no other choice than to travel to rural Bolivar and risk their lives in the dangerous illegal mining industry. Government officials — who are supposed to be cracking down on this criminal enterprise — are ignoring and even participating in these abusive operations. The government should be protecting its people from such horrors, not aiding their criminal abusers.

Establishment-critical narrative

While Maduro has struggled to cope with falling oil revenue, the reason behind this failing economy is due to US interventions in Venezuelan elections as well as sanctions on its oil industry. For decades now, the US foreign policy establishment has knee-capped every populist politician whose agenda was to democratize government and industry, which is why the people have now been forced into poverty and thus illegal means of making an income.

Nerd narrative

There's a 65% chance that the US will sanction Venezuelan oil again by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Spain's poor track record of substandard infrastructure planning has profoundly contributed to Valencia's tragic fire. Thursday's tragedy could have been prevented if the building hadn't been covered with highly combustible polyurethane cladding, which is no longer in widespread use. The builder must be charged with manslaughter and negligence, while the government must work towards a concrete infrastructure plan to avoid such incidents.

Narrative B

It's still unclear what caused the blaze, but the authorities have deployed emergency personnel, paramedics, and military units to aid all affected people. Meanwhile, the government is determined to bring anyone responsible for the terrible fire to justice. However, as this is an unprecedented tragedy, the priority right now is to find the survivors, secure the area, and care for the victims' families —then begin a detailed probe.

Narrative A

Germany must maintain its support for Israel with the utmost clarity. Historically, even the country's left-wing parties have been unwavering in backing the Jewish state. Due to German society's history, the country's post-war raison d'être is to protect and support the Jewish people. This support has been material, moral, and even legal, per Berlin's declared stance at the International Court of Justice.

Narrative B

Germany's blank check to Israel — offered as atonement for history — completely misses the point of that sentiment. The political class has, so far, been unable to acknowledge Israel's brutal policies in Gaza, which is inadvertently stifling Germany's evolution into a country that has truly reckoned with its terrible past. It's admirable that German society seeks to redeem itself, but supporting the wanton killing of Palestinians does the opposite.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance of Israel joining the EU before Jan. 1, 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Another flashy digital media content producer is on the cusp of disappearing forever. Vice's demise further proves that a business model reliant on appealing to a young audience and increased digital ad revenue can't succeed. These cuts could push Vice back to profitability and it'll be interesting to see the approach it takes.

Narrative B

This wasn't a failure of Vice's business model, it was yet another example of what happens when private equity overlords try to use a journalistic entity as their private piggy bank. Owners who are dedicated to strong journalism over trying to get rich off the backs of digital content creators could make a go of it, and benefit society, even in today's difficult media environment.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the Woke index in US elite media will top by January 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

This case should serve as a warning of how AI can be used to interfere in future elections. Luckily, Biden was still able to win with his write-in campaign despite not being on the ballot and this robocall discouraging people from voting. Law enforcement and the Federal Communication Commission — which have each taken positive action — should be on high alert moving forward.

Republican narrative

This was an obvious criminal action, and whoever was responsible should be held accountable. But one can't ignore that Democrats brought this on themselves with their decision to defy New Hampshire's pleas and instead change the primary schedule. Biden wasn't on the ballot, so a more effective bit of bad-faith Democratic Party malfeasance could have led to an embarrassing loss for the president.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that the US will have mandatory disclosure requirements on deepfake technology before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus community prediction.

Pro-establishment narrative

NATO will face many major challenges in the months ahead — including the continuing war in Ukraine and a possible return of Donald Trump to the US presidency — and Rutte is the best person to lead the alliance. He's a low-key, well-connected politician who can unite the allies and bolster both defense and deterrence policies.

Establishment-critical narrative

Support for Rutte is revealing the divisions within NATO. Older NATO members treat Central European countries, Poland, and the Baltic States as second-class allies even two decades after they fully acceded to the alliance. These countries increased their defense spending and warned about Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin's imperial ambitions, and they should have a bigger say in leadership.

Pro-Russia narrative

Rutte is a proven Russophobe who's committed to the globalist West's proxy war in Ukraine. As the new NATO leader, he'll carry out plans from the White House despite his low approval ratings in his own country. NATO seems determined to always be at odds with Moscow.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that NATO will have at least 32 members on Dec. 31, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Not only is Reddit’s long-awaited IPO a huge boon for company executives and institutional investors, but it is also a win for ordinary Reddit users who will have the unique ability to buy shares in the initial offering. Reddit is a platform made up of communities, and the company is showing how much it values its community at large. Powered by its millions of users and high-profile investors, there's little doubt that Reddit's public debut will be a success.

Narrative B

While Reddit may be doing a nice thing for its loyal users by offering them the opportunity to buy shares in its IPO, the goodwill offer makes the company’s entire deal riskier. IPO investors typically have extensive experience and knowledge, and allowing novices to get in the game could make things worse for them as well as the company. A social media company that records net losses is already volatile, and allowing users to invest in the IPO makes Reddit an even riskier bet.

Nerd narrative

There is a 56% chance that a S&P500 tech boom will surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.