Pro-Trump narrative

With an abysmally small turnout, Haley's primary victory in Washington D.C. — a district renowned for its anti-Trump, pro-Democrat ideology — is neither a surprise nor an indication of future success in the nomination process. This is further proof that the desires of Washington's urban elites continue to be at odds with the average American citizen. They only support candidates who serve their elitist interests.

Anti-Trump narrative

While Haley will almost certainly not win the GOP nomination, her role in being an alternative base aimed at standing up to Trump may regardless prove pivotal in the November election. Haley has the opportunity to do what Bernie Sanders managed against Hillary Clinton in 2016 — to remain a thorn in the nominee's side and influence the party platform. She must continue to undermine Trump's cult of personality from within.

Nerd narrative

There is a 97% chance that Trump will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

There's no valid evidence that rigging or controversy marred this polling process. However, the West has sought to outrageously meddle in Pakistan's internal affairs, voicing unfounded concerns over the vote while baselessly demanding probes into alleged irregularities. Pakistan's sovereignty, its rule of law, and the results of its election must be internationally respected.

Establishment-critical narrative

These elections were flawed from the beginning and, with authorities carrying out blatant lawfare against Khan and his PTI, this outcome was widely anticipated. What's surprising, however, is that the US has failed to take stronger action to ensure that its treaty ally has a free and fair vote, despite Biden arguing that promoting democracy overseas is the defining challenge of our time. Perhaps democratic values aren't that important to the White House after all.

Nerd narrative

There's a 21% chance of civil war in Pakistan before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Armed bandits have orchestrated acts of violence and terror to cause chaos and panic in Haiti. Ruthless gangs control 80% of Port-au-Prince and are fighting to seize the rest to delay forming inclusive governance and restoring democracy in the country. The mass prison break and upsurge in violence underlines the need for the UN to deploy a multinational security force to bring peace to Haiti and make it gang-free.

Establishment-critical narrative

Deploying a multinational security force in Haiti would legitimize the unelected leaders of Port-au-Prince. Prime Minister Henry must immediately step down to allow a fresh, credible transitional government to emerge and create the conditions for free and fair elections. Until leaders unaffiliated with gangs form a functional government in Haiti, hope and stability will continue to elude an impoverished nation.

Nerd narrative

There is a 66% chance that Haiti will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The European Commission has not presented ample evidence in this case. Spotify itself has grown and cornered a huge 56% share of the European music streaming market — mostly piggybacking off of Apple for free. Other developers, too, have gained a lot from Apple's App Store, and yet around 86% do not pay the "store owner" any commission. Spotify isn't even satisfied with this outcome and wants the App Store revamped to suit itself. Apple should and will appeal this ruling.

Narrative B

Apple has long praised itself even as it crushed smaller rivals of Apple Music. It's difficult to understand how Spotify reaching out to its own users with information about deals that benefit the same users can be Apple's problem just because it owns the App Store. Apple curbing Spotify users' choices is repugnant to the idea of a fair and open digital marketplace — a pillar of the internet itself. One "bad Apple" can ruin an entire industry, which is why the EU has put an end to such behavior.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that iPhones will have a default search provider other than Google by 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

While China's threat to the region has only grown, the military capacity of ASEAN has remained small — particularly due to its previous reliance on Moscow for weapons and the effects of the war in Ukraine. The solution, therefore, is for member states to not only work to bolster their domestic weapons manufacturing but also establish new partnerships. Australia is making the right step here to help strengthen deterrence.

Pro-China narrative

Because Washington isn't funding its Southeast Asian allies like it used to, trying to force them to not only side with it but also fit the bill for its geopolitical feud with Beijing instead. Countries like Malaysia have seen right through this and opted to remain neutral. Given that China will continue to invest more in the region, these nations have an easy choice between Beijing's economic offers and America's proposal of instigating conflict.

Nerd narrative

There is a 32% chance that armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) will cause at least 100 deaths before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

This is a very serious security breach that puts even more heat on German officials following indiscreet public commentary on the Ukraine war. Not only will Russia be able to use this clip for propaganda purposes and prevent German delivery of Taurus missiles to Ukraine, it has likely intercepted more calls that will later be released. This must be investigated imminently.

Pro-Russia narrative

The conversation between German military officers couldn't have been clearer. Not only did officials discuss how to attack the Kerch Bridge, they also revealed that they're very much involved in the planning and implementation. This either reveals Germany's unofficial international policy, or shows that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is not in control of his military. Neither is good news for Berlin.

Nerd narrative

The Christian Democratic Union has a 75% chance of winning the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026, according to the Metaculus forecasting community.

Left narrative

This was a historic achievement on behalf of millions of women and their reproductive rights. Now it's up to pharmaceutical companies and US lawmakers to use the available financial data and ensure these life-saving pills are affordable for everyone.

Right narrative

Opill is problematic for a few reasons. Not only are there noted side effects, but the failure rate of Opill is higher than other hormone-based alternatives. Catholic and other conservative groups have also pointed to data suggesting that this method will not decrease abortion rates in the end. The GOP should advocate that the FDA revoke its approval.

Establishment-critical narrative

Big Pharma continues to ruin the contraceptive industry by producing and distributing contraception with unpopular side effects — some that have dangerous impacts. Instead of churning out unpopular pills, the pharmaceutical industry must invest its profits in research and development for healthier, non-hormonal pills.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that global fertility will drop to 0.25 births per woman before 2046, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

This is a major victory for Trump. It's clear the attempt by Colorado and other states to declare the former president of being an insurrectionist and remove him from the ballot was nothing more than a political stunt because his opponents know they're unlikely to beat him in an election.

Anti-Trump narrative

The liberal justices' concurrence proved this isn't the resounding victory Trump and his inner circle claim it is. SCOTUS didn't exonerate Trump for his actions from Jan. 6 and the debate over whether an insurrection can run for office will continue. It's important to provide the full context of this ruling.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that Trump will be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any US state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence. Last week's tragic incident is just another sign that this war needs to wind down, and all of the main actors involved must work toward a more permanent resolution.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel will always be thankful for the US' steadfast support, but the Biden administration needs to refrain from tying Israel's hands behind its back. Hamas is simply not interested in negotiating in good faith and has consistently shown its preference for violence. In contrast, Israel has done everything it can to ensure the safety of civilians in a war it did not want. Israel will pursue its goals, which are incredibly popular with its citizens, regardless of whether it annoys Washington or anyone else.

Pro-Palestine narrative

As Israel's slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza continues unabated, the Biden administration, increasingly anxious over the upcoming election, has resorted to cheap tactics to deny its support for Israel's brutal campaign. Regardless of how the administration tries to spin it, Biden has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to call for a permanent cease-fire — all of which incentivizes continued bloodshed. Indeed, Israel's war on Gaza would be unsustainable without US support, and Biden should enact concrete policy to stop the violence.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that Hamas will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

This cancellation isn't surprising considering how under Xi China has gone from having little press freedom to none. In 2016, Xi said that journalists must have "the correct orientation of public opinion." This is a sign of Xi's continued consolidation of power and distrust of the press.

Pro-China narrative

Western media is reporting on a red herring. Reporters have been writing hit pieces on every issue, from the housing crisis to foreign capital, and don't deserve to interview the premier. Beijing will proceed with its five-year plan to enhance economic prosperity — which will be a boon to the entire global community.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that China will score at least 5.59 on the Human Freedom Index in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

All things considered, Sunday’s spending package was a major victory for conservatives as Republicans were able to secure hefty spending cuts to several agencies while averting a government shutdown. It’s fair to say that the bill did not go far enough, but it would be impossible for Republicans to achieve all of their policy goals when the House is basically split 50 and the Senate is controlled by Democrats. Compromise was necessary to avoid a shutdown, and Speaker Johnson did a good job negotiating this deal.

Democratic narrative

Responsible members of Congress came together to negotiate Sunday's spending bill as far-right Republicans did all they could to push for a government shutdown. For months, Congress has been forced to pass stopgap spending bills to avoid government shutdowns because Speaker Johnson is being held hostage by the fringe of his party. Johnson knows that he can never win with his far-right colleagues, but he has to placate them by spinning his agreements. Johnson had no choice but to take his minor wins, but he is marketing a few spending cuts to his base.

Nerd narrative

There is a 29% chance that there will be a US government shutdown before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.