The Case For Greater ASEAN Defense Industry Collaborations
The DiplomatFeb 29
Australia Pledges Hundreds of Millions to ASEAN Countries
The Facts
Australia pledged roughly $42M (A$64M) over the next four years to strengthen maritime security partnerships with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries on Monday, the first day of the Australia-ASEAN Special Summit in Melbourne.
Foreign Minister Penny Wong announced the funding, which is part of a larger $186M (A$286.5M) commitment, as a response to alleged "provocative and coercive actions including unsafe conduct at sea and in the air" across the Indo-Pacific.
The Spin
Anti-China narrative
While China's threat to the region has only grown, the military capacity of ASEAN has remained small — particularly due to its previous reliance on Moscow for weapons and the effects of the war in Ukraine. The solution, therefore, is for member states to not only work to bolster their domestic weapons manufacturing but also establish new partnerships. Australia is making the right step here to help strengthen deterrence.
Pro-China narrative
Because Washington isn't funding its Southeast Asian allies like it used to, trying to force them to not only side with it but also fit the bill for its geopolitical feud with Beijing instead. Countries like Malaysia have seen right through this and opted to remain neutral. Given that China will continue to invest more in the region, these nations have an easy choice between Beijing's economic offers and America's proposal of instigating conflict.
Nerd narrative
There is a 32% chance that armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) will cause at least 100 deaths before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.