Pro-establishment narrative

Although the Kenyan government's decision is understandable, there's no need to delay the deployment of its police forces. Washington will ensure that a transitional council is set up in the next few days, which will then appoint an interim Prime Minister paving the way for free and fair elections in Haiti. Washington has approved $300M in funding for the security mission and is counting on Kenya to honor its commitment to support Haiti.

Establishment-critical narrative

UN and US-backed troops have been sent to keep the peace in Haiti before, and things only got worse. Not only did these outside forces establish an unelected leader, but they also mistakenly unleashed cholera on the Caribbean state of 11M people. Whether this operation leads to a new transition plan or not, the Haitian government has no ability to regain control of its capital, let alone conduct free elections. History is likely to repeat itself here, meaning the safety and economy of Haiti will deteriorate further.

Nerd narrative

There's a 57% chance that Haiti will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

Following a series of dominant victories, Trump has finally been confirmed as the man who'll fight for Republicans and Americans nationwide. Despite the best attempts of the corporate elite to find an alternative candidate, the will of the people could not be ignored. Now, it is time for Trump to finish the job.

Democratic narrative

Although Biden is slightly behind in the polling, the American public will soon become more aware of his accomplishments and why he's a better choice than Trump. Among Biden's achievements are a solid economic recovery, a crucial infrastructure bill, a long-awaited cap on insulin prices, and supporting women's reproductive health.

Cynical narrative

The American system has provided its citizens with two presidential candidates who inspire little excitement. The US would be better off if a new era of politicians took the reins. With little to celebrate about either party's nominee, America will have to wait another four years to see any real change.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Donald Trump will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Ahead of Russia's sham elections where the autocrat is all but guaranteed to be re-elected, Putin is once again threatening the West with the use of nuclear weapons — demonstrating once again his gangster tactics in an effort to exert his influence.

Narrative B

Putin's specific remarks were in response to a direct question about whether Russia was "really" ready to use nuclear weapons if they were needed. He reiterated Russia's longstanding nuclear doctrine that states such weapons can only be used if the existence of the Russian state was under threat — something he said is unlikely.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that a nuclear weapon will be detonated as an act of war by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israeli troops have no care for the lives of Palestinians, even children, and their government has no desire to hold them accountable. This was shown by National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir's praising of the soldier who killed the year-old boy and arguing that he should not be investigated for his actions. Even with video footage debunking the claim that the boy shot fireworks at Israeli forces, those who killed him will face no punishment. The international community must start holding Israel accountable for its crimes.

Pro-Israel narrative

The Israeli government is not lying about terrorist threats in the West Bank. Ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which has since begun, a spokesman for the Palestinian Islamic Jihad called for this year's holiday to be a "month of terror" and for terror groups to "unify" against Israel. Palestinian terrorists have certainly heeded this message, returning to old tactics of suicide bombings in civilian venues such as buses and cafes. Israeli forces are responding to militants, not innocent civilians, pointing weapons at them.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 724 Palestinian fatalities in the West Bank caused by Israeli forces before July 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Russia narrative

That Volkov was attacked as Russia prepares for a rigged presidential election that will certainly grant Putin a renewed term in office is no surprise, particularly given that the Kremlin spares no efforts to crack down on the opposition. While this operation in Lithuania was designed to serve as a warning to dissidents at home, it further reasserts that Russia is at war with the West.

Pro-Russia narrative

It's no coincidence that the West insists on pointing fingers at the Kremlin — and Putin personally — over anything that happens to people in the opposition camp, as its propaganda machine is now at full tilt to try to divert focus from defeats in Ukraine and the genocide in Gaza. If Western countries did live up to what they preached, Julian Assange, for example, wouldn't be subject to torture for exposing the US' ruthless killings.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Vladimir Putin will cease to hold the office of President of Russia by March 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Kennedy continues to run an unserious campaign that's besmirching his family's legacy and could potentially spoil Biden's reelection. Even his relatives oppose his campaign. His ties to Rodgers and Ventura are built on conspiracy theories and anti-vaccine sentiments, and this is as dangerous to the country while he's on the campaign trail as it would be if he somehow got elected to the White House.

Establishment-critical narrative

Kennedy isn't tarnishing his family's reputation, he's actually carrying on the legacy of what his father and grandfather believed. He should be a spoiler to both Biden and Republican nominee Donald Trump because he wants to beat them in a three-way race — a possibility according to the polls. Independents are a huge voting bloc, and Kennedy is representing those citizens well.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

Not only has this inquiry ignored world-leading epidemiologists critical of lockdowns, but its treatment of the few it has called upon has been confrontational. COVID infection rates were falling before lockdowns, which shows what little scientific rigor the government has and continues to put into this issue. What's worse, the inquiry didn't originally plan to include the topic of children until parents protested.

Pro-establishment narrative

This inquiry has been rigorous and detailed in its socially- and medically-focused scientific pursuits. While some still claim that the government did too much in response to the virus outbreak, what this investigation has found is that leaders such as former Prime Minister Boris Johnson were too slow to act and thus left the elderly population at fatal risk. The public health community followed the best available science at the time.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% that at least 140K people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2025 in the United States, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

Willis just received another reality check regarding her bad faith charges against Trump. Not only has a significant part of her racketeering case been stripped away, but she's also been exposed as a corrupt prosecutor personally profiting from this case. While Trump still faces other counts, this series of losses for Willis looks like the start of Trump's exoneration. This is even more momentum for Trump as November approaches.

Anti-Trump narrative

Although this is a blow to Willis' case, there are still dozens of serious counts filed against the former president and his colleagues. Trump was captured on audio asking elected officials to "find" him more votes, and there's a plethora of more evidence proving his co-conspirators tried influencing and harassing officials into helping them overturn the election. This case is still on the road to victory.

Nerd narrative

There's a 55% chance that Trump will be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

ByteDance must divest TikTok or it must be banned because it's a national security threat to the US. The Chinese Communist Party has cleverly created a platform with addictive algorithms that can easily manipulate the minds of the millions of Americans using it. It's so bad, that it's even banned in China, so there's no reason why the US should be allowing China access to Americans' minds and data.

Pro-China narrative

It's laughable how the US claims it stands for free speech and fair competition but then its politicians pass a bill that's the equivalent of political robbery. US lawmakers have convicted TikTok of being a national security threat despite not having one ounce of evidence. They're willing to deny millions of their citizens access to a platform they love in the name of scoring political points. Free speech and rule of law are dead in the US.

Nerd narrative

There's a 13% chance that TikTok will be sold to a US entity before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Meta is fighting tooth and nail to prevent the FTC from imposing common sense regulations to protect children's personal data. The Facebook parent has been under regulatory heat for more than a decade, and it consistently circumvents outdated agreements to grow its profits. The 2020 settlement with the FTC was never intended to be a final agreement, and the FTC has every right to tighten restrictions over time.

Narrative B

After Meta paid a $5B fine and adhered to the FTC's terms, the regulator is attempting to completely rewrite its settlement with Meta and unconstitutionally impose ridiculous restrictions that would violate the previous agreement. The FTC doesn't have the authority to renege on the terms of its settlement. Meta will continue to fight for fairness and the rights of companies to not have their settlements arbitrarily changed at the hands of bureaucratic agencies.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that Meta Platforms will sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.