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26 June 2025

Daily Newsletter

Ukraine, Council of Europe Sign Accord for Russia War Tribunal

Photo: Frederick Florin/AFP/Getty Images

The Facts

  • Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Council of Europe Secretary General Alain Berset have agreed to establish a Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine, aiming to prosecute Russian leaders for launching the invasion in February 2022.

  • This is the first time the Council of Europe has established a special tribunal to prosecute senior leaders for using armed force against Ukraine, in violation of the UN Charter. It could target senior officials, including President Putin, though sitting heads of state have immunity from prosecution.

  • The International Criminal Court (ICC) has already issued arrest warrants for Putin and four Russian commanders for allegedly abducting Ukrainian children and targeting civilians. The new tribunal, complimentary to ICC efforts, can hold trials in absentia and has no statute of limitations on aggression crimes.

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The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

This Tribunal represents a historic step toward accountability for Russia's unprovoked aggression against Ukraine. The international community cannot allow Putin and his cronies to escape justice for launching an illegal war that has caused immense suffering. While the ICC handles war crimes, this new court fills a critical gap by targeting the fundamental decision to invade a sovereign nation.

Establishment-critical narrative

The Council of Europe's new tribunal, intended to address the crime of aggression against Ukraine, faces significant legal hurdles. These include jurisdictional challenges, potential conflicts with national laws and international conventions, and practical difficulties in enforcing its rulings, particularly concerning immunity for high-ranking Russian officials.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance Vladimir Putin will cease to hold the office of President of Russia by January 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Trump Administration Sues All Maryland Federal Judges

Photo: Mark Wilson/Getty Images

The Facts

  • The Trump administration filed an unprecedented lawsuit Tuesday against all 15 federal district judges in Maryland, challenging a standing order that automatically pauses deportations for two business days.

  • Chief Judge George L. Russell III issued the standing order in May after an influx of after-hours habeas petitions from detained immigrants created "scheduling difficulties and resulted in hurried and frustrating hearings."

  • The lawsuit stems from broader conflicts between the Trump administration and federal courts over immigration enforcement, including the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Salvadoran wrongfully deported to El Salvador.

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The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

Bench-bound zealots masquerading as guardians of the Constitution hijack policy, firing nationwide injunctions like partisan artillery to cripple an elected president. Their arrogance subverts democratic choice, smothers urgent reforms, and recasts referees as unelected kings. This judicial veto risks embalming governance with activist overreach.

Anti-Trump narrative

By suing every Maryland district judge, arresting a Wisconsin jurist in her chambers, and menacing the bench with impeachment threats, Trump wages an authoritarian war on the very referees of our democracy. His actions shout contempt for due process, twist executive power into a cudgel, and dare America to watch its constitutional safeguards crumble.

Nerd narrative

There is a 4% chance the size of the U.S. Supreme Court will increase before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

UK Synthetic DNA Project Receives $13M in Funding

Photo: Unsplash

The Facts

  • The Wellcome Trust has provided £10 million ($13 million) in initial funding for the Synthetic Human Genome Project (SynHG), a five-year, multi-university project led by Cambridge University's MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology, which attempts to create human DNA building blocks from scratch.

  • The project seeks to build tools to synthesize large segments of human DNA, potentially creating a full synthetic chromosome (about 2% of the genome). Unlike genome editing of existing DNA, synthesis enables broader, denser, and more precise genetic changes.

  • Researchers believe the technology could accelerate treatments for incurable diseases by generating disease-resistant cells to repopulate damaged organs in the liver, heart, and immune system, potentially leading to therapies to improve aging and age-related conditions.

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The Spin

Techno-optimist narrative

Synthetic DNA research, along with advances in gene editing and AI-powered biology, is opening the door to a new era in healthcare. From designing targeted treatments to spotting diseases earlier and personalizing care, these tools promise to slow the effects of aging and make the world healthier.

Techno-skeptic narrative

While synthetic biology and AI promise medical breakthroughs, they also raise alarming risks. As AI learns to read and rewrite our DNA, the potential for misuse — biohacking, privacy breaches, and genetic discrimination — grows. We're rewriting life's code without clear rules, oversight, or protections. This isn't just another innovation — it's a high-stakes gamble.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that at least 34 gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Third of Tuvalu Citizens Seek Australia Climate Visas

Photo: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images

The Facts

  • More than 3,000 Tuvaluans have entered a ballot for Australia's climate visa program — nearly one-third of the Pacific nation's population of 10,643 people — according to 2022 census figures. The ballot opened on June 16, with registration costing AUS$25 and closing on July 18.

  • Australia offers 280 visas annually to citizens of Tuvalu under the Falepili Union treaty, signed in 2024. The program provides permanent residency and enables free movement between countries for work, study, and family connections.

  • Scientists predict that Tuvalu will become uninhabitable within 80 years due to rising sea levels. The low-lying nation faces regular flooding, saltwater intrusion, and coastal erosion, which threaten its freshwater supplies and infrastructure.

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The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

This groundbreaking climate visa program represents Australia's genuine commitment to helping Pacific neighbors facing existential climate threats. The treaty affords dignity and choice to Tuvaluans while legally recognizing their nation's sovereignty despite the rising seas. It's a model for addressing climate migration that other countries should follow.

Establishment-critical narrative

The Falepili Union was negotiated in secrecy without a proper parliamentary process, representing modern-day colonialism at its worst. Australia gains veto power over Tuvalu's defense decisions while draining the nation of its people and cultural knowledge. This treaty erodes sovereignty rather than protecting it.

Narrative C

Mass emigration could drain Tuvalu's skilled professionals and young talent, potentially imperiling the nation's future development. Small island states have limited job opportunities, with agriculture being difficult and fisheries offering limited employment opportunities despite their potential.

Narrative D

Tuvalu's challenges have no direct relation to the climate crisis. Natural geological shifts, tides, and local land use practices have a significant role in contributing to land loss and flooding. Sea-level rise is overstated, and Tuvalu's issues stem more from development practices than from the impacts of global climate change.

See sources

Israel Halts Aid Deliveries to Northern Gaza

Photo: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Anonymous officials reported on Thursday that Israel is halting aid deliveries to northern Gaza after a video emerged of gunmen transporting an aid truck. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hamas of stealing aid, saying the military had 48 hours to formulate a plan to prevent this. According to the officials, Israel is still permitting aid to move through the south.

  • One Israeli outlet reported that Netanyahu made the decision after Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich threatened to withdraw from the government over the allegations that Hamas was diverting aid. Palestinian sources said the gunmen were from Palestinian clans trying to protect aid trucks from looters.

  • The U.S. and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) said that it was the only agency allowed to continue aid deliveries during the 48 hour halt in aid deliveries. Hamas, aid groups, and a committee representing influential families in Gaza have all denied that Hamas is stealing aid.

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The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

The U.S. keeps fielding ridiculous ideas regarding Gaza that neither Palestinians nor Americans want. Instead, the United States should push for a ceasefire that ensures the release of the hostages and sidelines Hamas in favor of secular Palestinian figures who aren't connected to terrorism.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though nothing is set in stone, the United States could play an incredibly beneficial role in stabilizing Gaza and ensure that Hamas never rules the strip ever again. Furthermore, the United States can help lead the humanitarian mission of relocating Palestinians in Gaza so that they can live decent lives away from the ruins of the strip. U.S. control of Gaza may not solidify, but the relocation of Palestinians is still very possible. Additional normalization agreements with Arab countries will also only strengthen Israel's security.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Nothing that Trump says changes the reality that Israel is committing a U.S.-backed genocide in Gaza. The plan has been the same since day one — destroy Gaza and starve its people. This war was never about the hostages, as Israeli leaders have repeatedly said recently, and was always about destroying the Palestinian people. Israel's decision to again halt aid into the strip is clearly to collectively punish the population for the successful Hamas attack on Israeli forces earlier this week.

See sources

Trump Admin Rules California Violated Title IX on Trans Athletes

Photo: Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Facts

  • The U.S. Department of Education's (DOE) Office for Civil Rights on Wednesday announced that it concluded that California's Department of Education and Interscholastic Federation violated Title IX — a 1972 law banning sex discrimination in education — by allowing transgender athletes to compete in girls' sports and use female facilities.

  • The DOE said that it has given California 10 days to comply with federal orders, as set forth by federal guidelines, or face "imminent enforcement action," including potential referral to the Department of Justice and loss of federal education funding.

  • The federal investigation began in February after California's Interscholastic Federation announced that it would continue following state law allowing transgender athletes to compete based on gender identity despite an executive order from President Donald Trump banning transgender athletes from competing with female athletes.

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The Spin

Republican narrative

This enforcement action protects women's sports from unfair competition. California knowingly violated federal civil rights law by allowing biological males to steal awards and records from female athletes. The state must restore dignity to women's athletics by following Title IX requirements that ensure fair competition based on biological sex.

Democratic narrative

The Trump administration's discriminatory policy lacks legal standing and would put an undue burden on the state to verify the gender of every competing athlete. Newsom is taking action to protect the few transgender athletes in the state from the president's cruel policies. The DOE should focus more on avoiding harmful budget cuts.

Nerd narrative

There's a 38% chance that the U.S. Department of Education will be dissolved before Jan. 20, 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Global Drug Bust Seizes $65M in Counterfeit Medicines

Photo: Liam McBurney/PA Images/Getty Images

The Facts

  • In a statement on Wednesday, INTERPOL announced that its Operation Pangea XVII resulted in the seizure of 50.4 million doses of illicit pharmaceuticals worth $65 million across 90 countries between December 2024 and May 2025, marking the largest seizures and arrests in the operation's 17-year history.

  • Law enforcement agencies arrested 769 suspects and dismantled 123 criminal groups worldwide, while launching 1,728 investigations and issuing 847 search warrants targeting networks allegedly engaged in illicit pharmaceutical distribution.

  • Anti-anxiety drugs, medications for Parkinson's disease, and erectile dysfunction medicines were among the most commonly seized products, with 93% of confiscated pharmaceuticals lacking regulatory approvals from national health authorities.

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The Spin

Narrative A

This massive bust shows law enforcement is finally getting serious about protecting public health from dangerous counterfeit drugs flooding online markets. Criminal networks are exploiting social media and e-commerce platforms to peddle fake medicines that could kill unsuspecting consumers. The seizure of $65 million worth of illegal pharmaceuticals proves these operations are working to dismantle organized crime groups profiting from people's desperation.

Narrative B

While authorities celebrate these seizures, the real issue is government overregulation making legitimate medicines too expensive and inaccessible for ordinary people. The demand for cheaper alternatives online exists because healthcare systems have failed to provide affordable treatment options. Protectionist drug importation bans drive consumers to sketchy outlets, and a liberalized drug sale regime would eliminate counterfeiting almost entirely.

See sources

Iran's Khamenei Claims Victory Over Israel, US After Ceasefire

Photo: Firdous Nazir/NurPhoto/Getty Images

The Facts

  • Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, from an undisclosed location, delivered his first public remarks since a ceasefire with Israel took effect, claiming victory over both Israel and the United States in the 12-day conflict that ended Tuesday.

  • Khamenei referenced Iran's missile attack on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which reportedly caused no casualties, as delivering "a slap to America's face," and threatened future strikes on American military bases in the Middle East if the United States attacks Iran again.

  • The Iranian leader disputed U.S. President Donald Trump's claims that America "obliterated" Iran's nuclear facilities, asserting the attacks "did nothing significant" and that Iran's nuclear program remains largely intact, contrary to claims that it was set back by decades.

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The Spin

Anti-Iran narrative

It's ironic that Khamenei claimed "victory" while hiding after vanishing for weeks amid fears of assassination and failing to reassure his own people. His boasts of power ring hollow after having first let his nuclear site get blown up, followed by a weak video response delivered from the shadows of a bunker.

Pro-Iran narrative

Critics mock Khamenei for speaking from a secure location, yet overlook what his message revealed Iran, under siege, struck U.S. and Israeli assets and maintained unity. Far from hiding, Khamenei led a nation that endured assault without surrender, emerging ever more defiant.

Nerd narrative

There's a 39% chance that Iran will attack U.S. sites in Iraq before August 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Spanish PM Sanchez Plans 2027 Re-election Bid Amid Scandals

Photo: Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Wednesday announced his intention to run for re-election in 2027, despite multiple corruption investigations surrounding his Socialist party (PSOE) and family members. Opposition leaders are calling for his resignation.

  • Sánchez leads a minority leftist coalition government that faces several scandals, including investigations into his wife, Begona Gomez, for possible business irregularities and his brother, David Sánchez, for alleged influence peddling.

  • Santos Cerdan, a close ally and former PSOE secretary, resigned from the party and parliament after an audio recording allegedly caught him discussing improper public contract awards in exchange for commissions.

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The Spin

Left narrative

Sánchez remains the right choice to lead Spain. So far, the accusations against him are unsubstantiated. Meanwhile, his government has delivered historic employment and economic growth, and strengthened social protections. He's also shown integrity, resilience, and international leadership in turbulent times. His record — not rumors — deserves the people's trust.

Right narrative

Sánchez is an authoritarian clinging to power while his party crumbles under the weight of his corruption. With his top aide forced to resign and his family under investigation, his party's credibility is in ruins. Public outrage is flooding the streets, not because of partisan games, but because citizens are tired of a system that shields the powerful.

Nerd narrative

There's a 98% chance that Sánchez will still be prime minister of Spain at the end of 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

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25 June 2025

Iran damage report, deadly Kenya protests and SpaceX private ISS mission

Next newsletter

27 June 2025

Universal injunctions limits, US-China trade deal and Bezos Venice wedding