Apple, MP Materials Sign $500M Rare Earth Magnet Supply Deal
Apple on Tuesday announced a $500 million commitment with MP Materials — the only fully integrated rare earth producer in the U.S. — to purchase American-made rare earth magnets from the company's Fort Worth, Texas, facility starting in 2027.
The partnership includes establishing a rare earth recycling line in Mountain Pass, California, that will process recycled rare earth materials from used electronics and post-industrial scrap for reuse in Apple products.
MP Materials will expand its Texas factory with neodymium magnet manufacturing lines specifically designed for Apple products. The increased production is expected to create new jobs in advanced manufacturing and research and development.
Pro-establishment narrative
This partnership is a strategic win for American manufacturing, strengthening the nation's technological independence while reducing reliance on foreign supply chains, especially from China. The deal reflects the effectiveness of President Donald Trump's tariffs, pushing companies to invest in American jobs and secure critical resources domestically — helping to reduce China's grip on rare earths.
Establishment-critical narrative
This deal is a direct result of China curbing rare-earth exports in response to Trump's reckless tariffs. While Apple tries to spin this as a win for U.S. manufacturing, it's clear this would never have happened without Beijing's retaliatory actions. This deal is more about Apple trying to avoid future disruptions — costing consumers more — than any genuine commitment to securing production.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that China's share of rare earth production in 2030 will be at least 49%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Imposes 17% Tariff on Fresh Mexican Tomatoes
The U.S. Commerce Department on Monday imposed a 17.09% tariff on most fresh tomato imports from Mexico — excluding those for processing, like canning or sauces — after withdrawing from the 2019 Tomato Suspension Agreement that had prevented such duties since 1996.
Mexico supplies approximately 70% of the fresh tomatoes consumed in the U.S., with Mexican tomato exports to the U.S. valued at roughly $2.8 billion annually.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that "for far too long, our farmers have been crushed by unfair trade practices that undercut pricing on produce like tomatoes," justifying the tariff as necessary to protect domestic growers from allegedly dumped Mexican imports.
Republican narrative
This tariff finally levels the playing field after decades of Mexican producers illegally dumping tomatoes below fair market prices. American farmers have watched their market share plummet from 80% to 30% since 1996, while Mexican imports have increased by 400%. The suspension agreements repeatedly failed to halt these unfair practices, which devastated the domestic industry. Under President Donald Trump's leadership, America will now compete on a level playing field and come out ahead once again.
Democratic narrative
This is a reckless move at a time of rising costs that threatens jobs and economic stability across the U.S. The tomato industry supports approximately 50,000 jobs nationwide and generates an economic impact of $8.3 billion. This decision will devastate workers in Arizona and Texas, where the trade is particularly vital. Worse, it risks derailing future USMCA negotiations, with Mexico warning retaliation is on the table — further complicating trade relations.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be extended promptly at its July 2026 joint review, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Vows Quick Resolution to Egypt-Ethiopia Dam Dispute
U.S. President Donald Trump pledged to work toward a swift resolution of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia during a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in Washington, describing the Nile River as "a very important source of income and life."
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi welcomed Trump's remarks, praising his efforts to reach a "just agreement" that protects the interests of all parties regarding the Ethiopian dam and highlighting what he called Trump's commitment to settling disputes at the international level.
Trump described the hydropower project, located on the Blue Nile near the Ethiopia-Sudan border, as one of the most pressing water security challenges in Africa. He reiterated claims the U.S. financially supported its construction, but the GERD Public Coordination Office rejected this claim.
Pro-Trump narrative
Trump's intervention represents crucial American leadership in resolving a critical water security crisis that threatens Egypt's very survival. The Nile provides 97% of Egypt's freshwater for over 100 million people, making Ethiopian control over Blue Nile flows an existential threat to Egyptian agriculture and food security, not to mention Sudan's national interests. Years of failed negotiations prove that only decisive U.S. mediation can force Ethiopia to accept binding agreements that protect downstream water rights.
Establishment-critical narrative
Ethiopia's dam represents legitimate development that will lift millions out of poverty through clean energy generation, built entirely with Ethiopian resources and popular support, not with U.S. money. The project offers regional benefits through shared electricity and follows international law, while Egypt clings to outdated colonial-era water agreements that ignore upstream nations' rights. Ethiopian sovereignty over its natural resources cannot be compromised by external pressure or threats from downstream countries.
Nerd narrative
There is a 35% chance that state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia will cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK Inflation Rises to 3.6% in June
U.K. inflation rose to 3.6% in the year to June 2025, up from 3.4% in May, marking the highest rate since January 2024. According to the ONS, the increase was driven primarily by motor fuel prices, which fell only slightly compared to larger decreases in the same period last year.
Food price inflation increased for the third consecutive month to 4.5% annually, reaching its highest rate since February 2024, amid rises in cakes, meat, milk, eggs and cheddar cheese. Transport costs also contributed, with air fares rising 7.9% between May and June 2025.
Motor fuel prices fell by 9% in the year to June 2025, compared with a larger decline of 10.9% in May, as petrol prices dropped only 0.5 pence per liter between May and June versus a 3.0 pence decline in the same period last year. Diesel prices also declined 0.6 pence per liter.
Pro-establishment narrative
Cautious rate cuts and pragmatic government decision-making reflects sound policy in uncertain times. A recent rise in inflation is the result of short-term factors that are expected to peak in September, before a return to the Bank's target rate in the medium-term. The Treasury and the Bank will continue to work together to ensure that the British economy remains stable and secure.
Establishment-critical narrative
As the Bank of England rushes through interest rate cuts despite inflationary pressure, Reeves's Treasury continues to push prices up with increased borrowing and public spending. As these two institutions fail in their economic policy, it is working people that are left worse off. The Bank and the Chancellor must get a grip immediately or risk a fiscal crisis.
Nerd narrative
There is a 16% chance that the U.K. will achieve an annual GDP growth rate of at least 2.5% over the current parliamentary term, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Senate Advances Trump's $9 Billion Spending Cuts
The Senate voted 51-50 Tuesday to advance President Trump's request to rescind $9 billion in previously approved federal spending, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote after three Republicans joined all Democrats in opposition.
Senate Republicans removed $400 million in cuts to PEPFAR, the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, from the original $9.4 billion package to secure enough votes for passage, with the White House signaling it would not contest this change.
The legislation targets $8.3 billion in foreign aid programs, including refugee assistance, disease prevention, and democracy promotion, along with $1.1 billion for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting that funds NPR and PBS stations.
Republican narrative
This rescissions package represents a crucial first step toward fiscal responsibility and government efficiency. With a $36 trillion national debt, cutting wasteful spending on biased public media and ineffective foreign aid programs is exactly what taxpayers demand. The administration is simply fulfilling campaign promises to drain the swamp and prioritize America first.
Democratic narrative
These reckless cuts undermine decades of bipartisan cooperation and threaten essential services that save lives globally while destroying local news sources in rural communities. The process bypasses normal legislative oversight and sets a dangerous precedent for executive overreach in spending decisions that belong to Congress.
Nerd narrative
There is a 35% chance the PEPFAR program will cease to exist before January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: OpenAI Building ChatGPT Support for Excel, PowerPoint Files
OpenAI is developing new productivity features for ChatGPT that will allow users to create and edit Microsoft Excel spreadsheets and PowerPoint presentations directly within the chatbot interface, eliminating the need to use Microsoft's applications.
According to a report published by The Information on Tuesday, the AI company has embedded buttons beneath the ChatGPT search bar to guide users in launching a spreadsheet or presentation workflow, with files remaining compatible with Microsoft Office formats.
OpenAI can develop these features without Microsoft's permission because the company has made Excel (.xlsx) and PowerPoint (.pptx) file formats open source, avoiding any copyright infringement issues.
Narrative A
These productivity enhancements represent a natural evolution for ChatGPT, transforming it from a simple chatbot into a comprehensive workplace solution. The ability to create and edit Office files directly eliminates workflow friction and could save businesses money on expensive Microsoft 365 subscriptions. OpenAI's approach leverages open-source formats legally while providing users with seamless, AI-powered productivity tools.
Narrative B
This development signals potential strain in the OpenAI-Microsoft partnership, as the AI company directly challenges its investor's core revenue streams. The new features may lack essential business capabilities, such as cloud storage and real-time collaboration, that enterprises require. Early reports suggest the AI agents can be slow and buggy, taking significantly longer than humans to complete basic tasks.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that GPT-5 will be available to the general public by September, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Pentagon Withdraws Half of National Guard Troops from LA
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered the withdrawal of 2,000 National Guard troops from Los Angeles, the Pentagon confirmed Tuesday. This cuts the federal military presence by roughly half after more than a month of deployment to support immigration enforcement operations.
The Trump administration initially deployed approximately 4,000 National Guard troops and 700 Marines to Los Angeles in early June following protests against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids that resulted in 2,792 arrests of undocumented immigrants.
A Pentagon spokesman stated the troop reduction was justified because "lawlessness in Los Angeles is subsiding." Approximately 2,000 National Guard members and 700 Marines will remain deployed in the area.
Democratic narrative
This drawdown is a victory for Californians against the Trump administration's attempt to overwhelm the state with fear and intimidation. It's time for the militarization of Los Angeles to end and for the economy-crushing ICE raids to stop as well. This affair should be a warning to all states about Trump's disregard for local authority.
Republican narrative
Referring to the drawdown as a retreat and declaring victory over American troops is a slap in the face by leftists to brave military members. The troops are being redeployed because they've mostly ended the riots that Democratic officials were unable to contain. But troops remain in Los Angeles to make sure nothing sparks up again.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that Trump will formally invoke the Insurrection Act before Jan. 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Istanbul Mayor Imamoğlu Gets 20-Month Prison Term
Istanbul Mayor and Turkey's leading opposition figure, Ekrem İmamoğlu, received a prison sentence of one year and eight months on Wednesday for insulting and threatening Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor Akin Gurlek.
The conviction stems from remarks İmamoğlu made during a Jan. 20 public panel where he criticized the prosecutor, calling his mind "rotten" and accusing him of targeting opposition figures through politically motivated investigations.
İmamoğlu has been held in pre-trial detention at Silivri Prison Complex since March 23 as part of separate corruption charges, which triggered Turkey's largest street protests in more than a decade.
Government-critical narrative
This conviction is another step in Turkey's systematic crackdown on opposition voices ahead of the 2028 elections. The timing and nature of these charges against İmamoğlu — Turkey's most popular opposition figure — clearly demonstrate the government's fear of democratic competition. The judicial system has become a political weapon to silence dissent and eliminate electoral threats.
Pro-government narrative
Turkey's courts are independent and apply laws impartially. The judiciary operates lawfully and without political interference, ensuring fair and impartial legal processes for all, regardless of their political affiliation. Judicial decisions reflect legal standards rather than being influenced by or pressured by political considerations. İmamoğlu's conviction stemmed from his inappropriate public remarks toward a prosecutor.
Nerd narrative
There's a 90% chance that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will remain president of Turkey until the next Turkish presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Israel Strikes Damascus as Syria Druze Violence Escalates
Israeli airstrikes hit Syria's Defense Ministry and areas near the presidential palace in Damascus, killing at least three and injuring 34, Syrian officials said. The strikes mark a major escalation, targeting key military sites of President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s interim government.
The strikes followed deadly sectarian clashes Sunday in Sweida, a Druze-majority city, where fighting between Druze fighters, Bedouin tribes, and government forces killed at least 248, according to the U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The violence erupted after kidnappings, including a Druze merchant's abduction.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz urged Syrian forces to leave Sweida, warning of harsher strikes, saying, "The warnings in Damascus have ended — now painful blows will come." Israel justified the attacks as protection for Syria's Druze, citing close ties with Israeli Druze and shared family roots.
Pro-Israel narrative
Israel's military intervention represents a necessary defense of the Druze minority against Syrian government forces and extremist allies who have committed atrocities, including summary executions and home invasions. The strikes on Damascus send a clear message that Israel won't abandon its Druze allies and will enforce demilitarization policies in southern Syria to prevent threats near its border.
Anti-Israel narrative
Israel's attacks constitute a flagrant violation of Syrian sovereignty and an attempt to sabotage the new government's efforts to establish peace and stability. The strikes represent Israeli pursuit of military hegemony rather than genuine protection of minorities, undermining Syria's fragile post-war transition. These actions expose Israel’s broader agenda to prevent regional unity under independent leadership.
Narrative C
Ongoing sectarian attacks—massacres, looting, executions and all violence against Druze, Alawites, Christians, Kurds, and others, must stop. Ahmed al‑Sharaa, despite pledges, oversees forces linked to HTS‑affiliated militias perpetrating atrocities and exclusionary policies, exposing him as an Islamist leader unwilling or unable to protect minority rights in Syria.
Narrative D
Recent violence in Suwayda is a challenge to Syrian state unity. Efforts are ongoing to protect all minorities, including Druze, by restoring order and enforcing ceasefires. Ahmed al-Sharaa has been serious about protecting minorities and national unity. He had met Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, pledging inclusion. He also reached agreements with Kurdish groups — distancing himself from extremist links.
Nerd narrative
There's a 12% chance that Syria will be partitioned into new, internationally recognized sovereign states before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Third-Nation Deportations Resume as Procedures Loosen
An Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) memo obtained by the Washington Post states that ICE may deport migrants to third countries with as little as six hours notice in exigent circumstances and without guarantees that they will not be tortured, as third-nation deportations have resumed.
Meanwhile, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced Tuesday that five men from Vietnam, Jamaica, Laos, Cuba and Yemen were deported to Eswatini, marking the latest third-country deportation under the Trump administration's expanded immigration enforcement policy.
The ICE memo states that those being deported to nations that have not provided guarantees of the migrant's safety can be deported within 24 hours unless in exigent circumstances and can be screened for humanitarian protection. No procedures are necessary if the State Department considers safety guarantees "to be credible."
Republican narrative
This policy targets the worst criminals whose own countries won't take them back, protecting American communities from dangerous individuals. The Supreme Court cleared the way for these necessary deportations, and diplomatic agreements ensure proper handling. Mass deportations fulfill campaign promises to secure the border.
Democratic narrative
This policy strips away due process protections and puts thousands at risk of torture and death with inadequate legal safeguards. Six hours notice isn't enough time to prepare any defense, effectively denying people their rights. This violates international law and humanitarian principles.
Nerd narrative
There's a 26% chance that at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE will occur in fiscal year 2025 compared with fiscal year 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.