Biden Vows to Defend Taiwan If China Attacks

    Biden Vows to Defend Taiwan If China Attacks
    Last updated May 25, 2022
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    • Pres. Biden said on Mon. that the US will respond militarily if Beijing were to try and take the self-governing island of Taiwan by force.
    • This statement stands in contrast to previous US presidents, who have historically adopted only vague warnings to China against attacking Taiwan, a policy dubbed "strategic ambiguity."
    • US officials deny the comments represent a change in the US' approach toward Taiwan, arguing they echo the nation's traditional policy, and its committments to both the One China policy and the Taiwan Relations Act.
    • According to the Taiwan Relations Act, the US must ensure Taiwan the military means to self-defense, but the pact does not go so far as explicitly pledging US troops.
    • This isn't the first time Biden has stressed the US would come to the defense of Taiwan in case of a Chinese attack, but Xi Jinping hasn't rejected using force to reunify mainland China and Taiwan.
    • Tensions between China and the US in relation to Taiwan have surged recently. Beijing has carried out several military drills in the Taiwan Strait, and the US has been accused of supporting Taiwan's "secessionist forces."


    Anti-China narrative

    The US' traditional strategy of ambiguity with regard to Taipei must be reformed in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Washington must make it clear that a Chinese attack would backfire, leading to the complete independence of Taiwan and the isolation of Beijing.

    Pro-China narrative

    The US is playing political games. Regardless, even if Washington were to abandon its commitment to the one-China policy, the declining nation has long since lacked the leverage to intimidate China.

    Nerd narrative

    There is a 5% chance that there will be a military conflict between the PRC (China) and ROC (Taiwan) before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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