Brazil: Court Bans Guns in Capital Ahead of Inauguration

    Brazil: Court Bans Guns in Capital Ahead of Inauguration
    Last updated Dec 29, 2022
    Image credit: Reuters


    • On Wednesday, Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes issued a ruling suspending registered gun owners from carrying firearms and ammunition in and around the country's capital until Jan. 2 — the day after President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's inauguration.[1]
    • This decision means that any registered gun owner caught in Brasília with a firearm from Wednesday evening through Sunday can be prosecuted for illegally carrying a weapon. It does not pertain to active members of the armed forces, police officers, and private security guards.[2]
    • The ruling follows a request from Lula's team for a ban on firearms at the inauguration, days after police arrested an alleged supporter of outgoing Pres. Bolsonaro on suspicion of planting and being in possession of explosives at Brasília International Airport.[2]
    • Tensions have been high since Lula narrowly defeated Bolsonaro in Brazil's most contentious election in decades, with Bolsonaro supporters camping outside army barracks urging armed forces not to allow Lula to take office.[3]
    • Earlier this month, pro-Bolsonaro demonstrators reportedly intended to attack federal police headquarters in Brasília. They also blocked roads and set vehicles on fire shortly after Lula was certified.[4]
    • Over 8K security officers, including state-level National Force troops, have been assigned to reinforce the security of the presidential inauguration festivities, which expect at least 300K attendees along with foreign delegations.[5]


    Left narrative

    Brazilian authorities have no other option than strengthening security measures to ensure a peaceful inauguration ceremony as outgoing Bolsonaro has emboldened his radical supporters by not conceding to Lula and formally contesting his loss. After attempting to invade police headquarters, it would not be a surprise if far-right terrorists and rioters were plotting an attack on the inauguration to create chaos.

    Right narrative

    It is outrageous that protesters who have been legitimately and peacefully rallying near military bases for months against Brazil's pro-Lula establishment are being treated like terrorists. If judicial measures were to be taken, it should be against the convicted criminal Lula — who had been sentenced to over two decades in prison before the top court overturned it to allow him to run for president this year.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 1% chance that Jair Bolsonaro will successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Political split