Baltic brinksmanship: Pipeline blasts signal potential new front in Ukraine war
POLITICOSep 28, 2022
A fourth leak on the Nordstream pipelines was reported on Thursday, after blasts earlier in the week caused unknown quantities of methane to escape into the Baltic Sea. Sweden's coast guard told the country's TT news agency that they have a vessel at the site of the leak, adding that all four leaks were in international waters – two near Sweden and two near Denmark.
Some European officials and energy experts have alleged Russia was responsible, while others warned against apportioning blame until a full investigation has been carried out. Meanwhile, Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Thursday alleged – without providing evidence – that "US intelligence services" were involved.
If Russia's role in these pipeline attacks is confirmed, then Europe's energy crisis is entering a new and dangerous phase. If Russia targets Western energy and communication infrastructure under the sea, it could draw the US and NATO into direct conflict with the Russian Navy, raising a host of security concerns.
Attempts to pin these attacks on Moscow are typical of Washington's thinking, particularly in light of the fact that US warships were sighted near the location of the blasts a day prior. We have to ask who really benefits the most from attacks on Russian gas routes, particularly in light of Biden commenting that he would "bring an end" to Nord Stream 2.
According to the Metaculus prediction community, there's a 2% chance any NATO country will trigger Article 5 – its collective defense agreement – before December 31, 2022.