Experts have made it clear – the situation at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant presents the threat of another Chernobyl. A nuclear disaster has, miraculously, been avoided so far, but the continuing risks and the safety and effectiveness of staff to control the reactors could have catastrophic consequences.
Although Zaporizhzhia's cooling systems will be relatively vulnerable due to their contact with the outside world, the worst-case scenario would only cause severe damage at a local level. Both Russia and Ukraine are overstating the risk of nuclear catastrophe to galvanize domestic and international support.
There is a 14% chance that there will be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.