A Moment of Strategic Clarity
LawfareOct 02, 2022
On Tuesday, Ukraine reported a flurry of gains in the newly annexed region of Kherson in the south of the country. A military official claimed via social media that forces had liberated eight settlements in the district of Beryslav in the north of the region.
Mounting Russian losses come as the country's Pres. Vladimir Putin on Wednesday approved the ratification of treaties to incorporate four annexed regions into the Russian Federation. Putin also named the existing heads of the regions as acting governors within the Russian political system.
Russia's annexation of four Ukrainian territories in contravention of international law makes it clearer than ever - Ukraine needs to be armed, funded, and defended until it emerges triumphant over Russia. This is a moment of strategic clarity: a peace deal is now off the table and Ukraine must be supported by the US in its fight against Russia's illegal invasion.
America's continuing supply of heavy weaponry to Ukraine is making it a direct participant in the conflict. Such provocations have to stop before we see an expansion of conflict – with many more deaths – between Russia and the West.
There's a 6% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.