Day 114 Roundup: Von der Leyen Backs Ukraine EU Candidacy; Civilian Casualties Pass 10k

    Photo: AP Photos [via Euronews]

    The Facts

    • Following a visit from the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and Romania to Kyiv on Fri., the European Commission recommended that Ukraine become a candidate for EU membership. Commission Pres. Ursula von der Leyen confirmed the move in Brussels, adding this was on the understanding that Ukraine carry out a number of reforms.

    • Meanwhile, following a statement from Ukraine's navy that it struck a Russian tugboat in the Black Sea on Fri., the country's defense ministry claimed the vessel had been sunk, though this has yet to be independently confirmed. The 'Vasily Bekh' was reportedly transporting troops, weapons and ammunition to Zmiinyi Island, also known as Snake Island, off the coast of Odesa.


    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

    Nerd narrative

    There is a 50% chance that, according to UN figures, there will be at least 10.3M internally displaced Ukrainians by the end of 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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