That Iran is on nuclear threshold is not secret, says top Iranian politician
Tehran TimesJul 18, 2022
On Sun., Kamal Kharrazi, a senior advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared that Iran has the technical ability to produce a nuclear bomb, but hasn't decided whether to do so.
He claimed that Iran was able to enrich uranium to up to 60% in a few days and that it would be easy to reach the 90% purity threshold suitable for a nuclear bomb.
While Iran has the technology needed to produce a nuclear bomb, Tehran remains committed to reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. It's Washington's failure to guarantee it won't withdraw once again from this diplomatic solution that has been blocking the deal.
Iran is making reckless claims out of desperation, fearing the US will support Israel and Saudi Arabia, and back out of efforts to restore Iranian nuclear talks. Although Tehran may be able to enrich uranium to military grade and in quantities to produce a bomb, it can't produce other essential parts for a nuclear weapon. This is just saber rattling.
There's a 48% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.