Iran Threatens No Nuclear Deal If IAEA Inquiry Continues

Photo: Iranian Presidency Office/AP [via The Washington Post]

The Facts

  • On Mon. Iran's Pres. Ebrahim Raisi warned that an agreement to revive the 2015 nuclear deal will only be finalized if the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) ends its yearslong inquiry into man-made uranium particles that were found at undeclared sites in the country.

  • This comes as Tehran is assessing a so far undisclosed US counterproposal to restore the agreement, suggesting that the closure of the IAEA probe is a key issue to Iran as it would prevent the US from using it to leave the deal again.

The Spin

Democratic narrative

We only reached this point of instability because of the damage Trump caused by pulling the US out of the 2015 nuclear deal. Biden is doing what he can to repair these diplomatic ties, and is dealing from a diminished position because of Iran's accomplishments in the years since the deal was scrapped.

Republican narrative

This is a chance for Biden to avoid a terrible new nuclear deal with Iran. A fresh agreement would allow Iran to continue funding terrorism, as well as benefit Putin because of carveouts for his country's energy projects with Tehran. A new deal would be a disaster.

Nerd narrative

There's a 16% chance that the US will rejoin the Iran nuclear deal before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Political split



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