• On Monday, North and South Korea exchanged warning shots, charging each other of infringing on their western maritime border as tensions run high. Pyongyang has conducted weapons tests at an unprecedented clip in 2022.
  • South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Pyongyang fired 10 artillery shells into a buffer region in the Yellow Sea, allegedly violating a 2018 inter-Korean military agreement. The North's Korean People's Army, however, claimed it was a "grave warning" against naval intrusions from the South.
  • This came one hour after the JCS broadcasted 20 warning messages and fired 20 warning shots in response to a North Korean merchant ship that reportedly crossed the Northern Limit Line (NLL), the de facto sea boundary in the West Sea, at around 3:40 am.
  • The incident area is highly disputed due to the poorly marked sea boundary near the Korean Peninsula's west coast, and is a source of long-running tensions. The region has been the scene of several violent naval battles between the North and South in recent years.
  • Following this latest incident, Seoul issued a statement saying that large-scale four-day firing exercises would be carried out off its west coast starting on Monday. This is part of South Korea's annual defense drills, which also involve US troops this year.
  • Monday's exchange of fire comes as US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman is to hold three-way talks with Japan and South Korea in Tokyo. The intent is to show unity amid recent escalations.


Republican narrative

You cannot blame Kim Jong-un for flexing North Korea’s military muscle when Biden is recklessly saber-rattling with Taiwan and China. How does Kim know the US will not also team up with South Korea for an invasion of the North? Trump's relationship with and policies towards North Korea maintained stability in the Korean Peninsula.

Democratic narrative

Kim Jong-Un's geopolitical actions have been erratic, and his missile launches are destabilizing the Peninsula. Instead of provoking a confrontation, Kim should take the Biden administration up on its offer to meet without preconditions, and settle any of his grievances peacefully. Biden is showing strength and prudence in the region.

Nerd narrative

There's a 17% chance that North Korea and South Korea will be recognized as a single sovereign state by 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Political split



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