The Facts

  • On Monday, North and South Korea exchanged warning shots, charging each other of infringing on their western maritime border as tensions run high. Pyongyang has conducted weapons tests at an unprecedented clip in 2022.

  • South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Pyongyang fired 10 artillery shells into a buffer region in the Yellow Sea, allegedly violating a 2018 inter-Korean military agreement. The North's Korean People's Army, however, claimed it was a "grave warning" against naval intrusions from the South.

The Spin

Republican narrative

You cannot blame Kim Jong-un for flexing North Korea’s military muscle when Biden is recklessly saber-rattling with Taiwan and China. How does Kim know the US will not also team up with South Korea for an invasion of the North? Trump's relationship with and policies towards North Korea maintained stability in the Korean Peninsula.

Democratic narrative

Kim Jong-Un's geopolitical actions have been erratic, and his missile launches are destabilizing the Peninsula. Instead of provoking a confrontation, Kim should take the Biden administration up on its offer to meet without preconditions, and settle any of his grievances peacefully. Biden is showing strength and prudence in the region.

Metaculus Prediction

Political split



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