Erdoğan Renews Threat To Block NATO's Nordic Expansion

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    The Facts

    • Türkiye agreed on Tues. to back Finland and Sweden's joint alliance membership, following urgent top-level four-way talks between the three countries and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

    • On Mon., Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared that Ankara will freeze Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO unless they take the "necessary steps" to comply with their security deal with Turkey.

    The Spin

    Narrative A

    It would be unacceptable to have the Nordic pair in the alliance while they had close ties with anti-Turkey terrorist groups. This vow to modify policies is an important step, but it still needs to be implemented in order to tackle threats against Turkey, a long-time NATO member and its second-largest standing military,

    Narrative B

    Turkey has used Finland and Sweden's NATO bids to advance its racist anti-Kurdish agenda, testing how far it could go in blackmailing the alliance. NATO's future is now at risk as the alliance created to protect liberal democracies has become hostage of Erdoğan's authoritarian regime.

    Narrative C

    The deal reached between Finland, Sweden and Turkey reinforces NATO's position, sending a clear message to the Kremlin. The Nordic expansion of the alliance is a massive defeat to Putin, who sought to prevent the alliance's enlargement by invading Ukraine.

    Nerd narrative

    There is a 98% chance that Sweden will join NATO before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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