Brazil: Lula Replaces Army Commander

Image copyright: Reuters [via Al Jazeera]

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Pres. Lula is justifiably worried about the potential domestic entities involved in the Jan. 8 riots. Beyond that, he should also focus on the international forces shaping public sentiment, such as the right-wing Trump movement in the US that sparked the Capitol riots in Washington. Jair Bolsonaro and his far-right friends to the north still hold sway over their base, so Lula will likely be dealing with these factions for a long time to come.

Establishment-critical narrative

The Jan. 8 storming of government buildings was relatively peaceful despite some damage to furniture and artwork, and Bolsonaro never encouraged his supporters to gather that day, let alone attempt to stage a military coup. Mainstream media is promoting a conspiracy that doesn't exist while ignoring that Brazilians are fully capable of protesting and distrusting institutions without being guided by US politicians.

Metaculus Prediction


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