Erdoğan Hints Finland's NATO Bid May Be Accepted Without Sweden

    Photo: dailysabah

    The Facts

    • Turkish President Recep Erdoğan stated on Sunday that his government could accept Finland into NATO without ratifying Sweden, citing that Helsinki "should not make the same mistake" Stockholm did.

    • His signaling comes as Ankara last week suspended dialogue to accept the Nordic duo's accession to the alliance in the wake of a protest in the Swedish capital in which a copy of the Quran was burned.


    The Spin

    Narrative A

    Turkey does not oppose NATO enlargement, however, it does take a stand against countries that protect those who pose a security threat to Ankara. Sweden holds a bigger PKK presence than Finland and has long been criticized for its housing of various terrorists. There must be a change in the country's stance towards the matter if they wish to join NATO alongside Finland.

    Narrative B

    The statement by Erdoğan may be an attempt to reopen negotiations, or it may be an attempt to cause a divide between Finland and Sweden. While much of Turkey's disapproval has always been directed at Sweden, Finland has made it consistently clear that NATO entry is a joint ticket. Sweden is as valuable an asset to NATO as NATO is to Sweden, and — for the sake of the Atlantic Alliance — it will be best for all parties if the issue is resolved.

    Nerd narrative

    There is a 65% chance that Sweden will join NATO before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


    Articles on this story

    Sign up to our daily newsletter