REACTION: Guatemala’s Surprising Runoff
Americas QuarterlyJun 26, 2023
On Monday, Guatemala's Supreme Electoral Tribunal announced that the conservative former First Lady Sandra Torres and the leftist congressman Bernardo Arévalo will head to a presidential runoff election on August 20 — neither came close to the 50% threshold needed to win in the first round.
With roughly 98% of the tally sheets processed, the National Unity of Hope (UNE) party's Torres had captured some 15% of the votes and the Semilla Party's Arévalo 12%. Abstention was at around 40% of the 9.3M citizens called to vote — two percent up from the 2019 elections.
The surprising success of Arévalo in the first round reflects the resounding backlash from the Guatemalan nation to a political establishment that has promoted ignominious interventions and vile plans in efforts to maintain power. The political class cannot manipulate the voting public anymore — the people want disruption within the system.
It was known well before Election Day that Guatemala's establishment would not allow any candidate threatening the interests of the country's corrupt political elite to run for president — the fact that Arévalo advanced to the second round must be considered with skepticism rather than optimism. It is very likely that either he is not a threat to the status quo, or that he will be prevented from taking office.