“Building Back Better” than what? Lessons in Indonesia after volcanic eruptions
New MandalaMay 25, 2022
The Facts
At least 11 hikers have reportedly been killed after Indonesia's Marapi volcano erupted on Sunday. A search to find 12 further missing hikers has been temporarily suspended due to safety concerns, officials said.
There were reportedly around 75 hikers in the area at the time of the eruption, of which at least 49 have been rescued.
The Spin
Narrative A
Mount Marapi is one of more than 125 active volcanoes in Indonesia, which is prone to seismic upheaval as it sits on the Pacific's "Ring of Fire" — an arc of volcanoes and fault lines encircling the Pacific Basin. With the threat of disaster a constant presence, the government is committed to investment in the preparation for and monitoring of such calamities.
Narrative B
Volcanic eruptions are contributing to the reduction of average global surface temperatures. Therefore, instead of viewing them as disasters, we need to understand the natural occurance of volcanic eruption in the broader context of climate change. Of course any fatalities resulting from volcanic activity are tragic, but they are also avoidable, whereas eruptions are inevitable and are aiding the mitigation of a greater climate threat to humanity.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that an eruption measuring six, seven, or eight on the Volcanic Explosively Index will occur anywhere on Earth before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.