Nigeria: Military Denies Coup Plot Claim Ahead of Elections

    Photo: Getty Images [via BBC News]

    The Facts

    • Nigeria's military on Saturday denied allegations that its officers met with a presidential candidate to plan to disrupt the upcoming general elections and establish an unconstitutional order, deeming such reports "malicious propaganda."

    • The allegations stem from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party, which claimed that army generals had held a secret meeting with the opposition People's Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar.


    The Spin

    Narrative A

    Despite the allegations, Nigerians must avoid all types of protests ahead of the general election, as an explosive atmosphere is exactly what chaos agents would use to impose an indefinite postponement of voting, introduce an interim government, or even carry out a military coup. Nigeria has enough security challenges to keep the army busy, so stepping into politics would only weaken the people's power.

    Narrative B

    Allegations that the armed forces have been planning a coup are a desperate fabrication intended to unrest Nigerians and destabilize the country — undermining the military's efforts to ensure security for the 2023 general elections. Nigeria's military remains apolitical and neutral in the political process and will not engage in mischievous plots to truncate the country's hard-earned democracy.

    Nerd narrative

    There's an 11% chance that Nigeria will have a coup before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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