Philippines' Marcos to forge stronger relationship with U.S. during visit
CNBCApr 30, 2023
The Facts
Philippine Pres. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is set to meet with US Pres. Joe Biden this week as part of a multi-day visit to Washington, DC as tensions grow with Beijing.
The White House has declared that the talks, which follow last week's joint Balikatan drills — the largest ever staged — will focus on the "ironclad" US commitment to regional defense and shared efforts to "uphold international law" as well as to promote a "free and open Indo-Pacific."
The Spin
Anti-China narrative
The strong bilateral commitment between the Philippines and the US is being renewed as a bulwark against unwarranted PRC aggression. China's intimidation of the Philippines and flagrant violations of international law are not going unnoticed, and the relationship between the two nations is stronger than ever. An expanded relationship with America would help preserve Philippine sovereignty and the stability of the Pacific region against China's baseless claims in the South China Sea and bolster their economy through American investment.
Pro-China narrative
US meddling in the Pacific increases the risk of destabilization in the region as Marcos Jr. increases American presence in the country despite strong domestic opposition to their presence. The increased military ties are a clear provocation against China, and risk pushing the territorial disagreements in the South China Sea to crisis levels by compromising ties with their largest trading partner. The Philippines must think long and hard about their interests before allowing themselves to become a pawn of the US.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that the US will withdraw from any of its current mutual defense treaties by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
