The last US-Russia arms control treaty is in big trouble
VoxFeb 25, 2023
The White House said Tuesday it would cease exchanging with Russia some data on its nuclear forces after Moscow did the same. The US called it a response to Russia suspending participation in the New START nuclear arms treaty, which limits the pair's stockpiles of strategic nuclear weapons.
Although Russian Pres. Putin has not formally withdrawn from the treaty, his suspension of participation announced in February jeopardizes the last major component of US-Russian nuclear arms control.
Moscow's threat to suspend the New Start Treaty is a violation of numerous provisions of the agreement, as well as an attempt to divide American opinion over the war in Ukraine by raising the specter of nuclear Armageddon. The US must stay firm with the Russians and encourage them to return to compliance with the treaty.
Russia has suspended its participation in the New Start Treaty but remains committed to the principle that a nuclear war is unacceptable. Before returning to the discussion of compliance with the treaty, however, Russia wants to understand how the arsenals of not only the US but also other NATO nuclear weapons powers — i.e. the UK and France — will be accounted for by it.
There is a 55% chance that the US will claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.