Syria Says Israeli Air Strikes Injured 2 Soldiers

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The Spin

Narrative A

Israel has been conducting airstrikes against suspected Iranian weapons transfers and personnel and its proxies in Syria for almost a decade. Though the strikes are part of a low-intensity conflict to slow Iran's growing entrenchment in Syria, the West has seemingly dropped its previous diplomacy plan to allow Israel and other allies to use military force to settle their grievances with Tehran. This risky strategy underestimates the potential magnitude and repercussions of a military escalation.

Narrative B

Syria is a conflict zone involving multiple actors, potentially causing the "shadow war" to worsen. Meanwhile, Iran — in coordination with Russia and controlling much of the Syrian airspace — risks pushing the conflict over the edge. Israel has been clear that it won't permit Iran to freely move weapons and fighters through Syria if such activities threaten Israeli security. Israel has justified targeting Iranian assets in any country where Tehran has dug its tentacles.

Metaculus Prediction


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