The Facts

  • As US officials report China is considering supplying the Russian military with artillery and ammunition for its war in Ukraine, US Pres. Biden's admin. is warning China that there would be serious consequences if it provided military assistance.

  • This comes as Kyiv's top general visited the front-line town of Bakhmut — where soldiers are holding out against constant Russian attacks, and Ukraine prepares for a counter-offensive with advanced Western weapons including battle tanks.

The Spin

Pro-China narrative

Since the Ukraine war began over a year ago, China has continually emphasized its neutrality and urged a peaceful end to this conflict. As the war rages on for longer than the West may have expected, the US is now looking to scapegoat the PRC as a country that has prolonged the conflict when it very well knows that NATO and the Pentagon are the instigators. The West needs to shift the blame for the hundreds of thousands of deaths it has caused.

Pro-establishment narrative

As Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping has watched Ukraine defend itself tremendously against the far more powerful Russian military, the PRC has likely been sobered to the reality of what happens when nations choose authoritarianism over the rules-based democratic order. China should be very careful in its dealings with Moscow, as any lethal military aid to Putin's invaders could dangerously strain already tense geopolitical tensions.

Nerd narrative

There's a 15% chance that China will get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by the end of 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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