Belarus to Update Military Doctrine, Possibly Permit Nuclear Weapons Use

Belarus to Update Military Doctrine, Possibly Permit Nuclear Weapons Use
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The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Belarus's military doctrine was years out of date, highlighted most apparently by the recent conflict in the Middle East. Belarus is a peaceful country and does not threaten anyone. Nonetheless, it will not accept any interference in its political affairs, nor any forms of aggression towards its territory — including from the Western "rules-based order." The recent changes simply reflect that modern reality.

Pro-establishment narrative

Belarus, Russia's closest ally, has just sent alarm bells ringing throughout the halls of Western governments. This is a reckless move and is a clear provocation to NATO, particularly to neighbors Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania in the eastern flank. The West must respond accordingly to these developments.

Metaculus Prediction


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