Brazil saw an attempted coup, even if a failed one
The Brazilian ReportJan 18, 2023
Supporters of former Brazilian Pres. Jair Bolsonaro gathered in São Paulo, the biggest city in the country, on Sunday to back the right-wing leader as he faces a federal probe into an alleged coup attempt, among other allegations.
According to an estimate from a research group at the University of São Paulo, 185K joined in the rally on the main Paulista Avenue, with police reporting an even larger crowd.
Even if the coup failed, accountability for what happened in Brazil isn't only a matter of justice but is crucial for the future of the country's democracy. The current investigation has revealed a coordinated, multi-pronged attempt by Bolsonaro and his accomplices to undermine the election's result. Despite the many similarities to the US Jan. 6 Capitol riots, the political influence of Brazil's military cannot be underestimated, and this is a concern that politicians must confront in the future.
You don't have to be a Bolsonaro supporter to see that Lula is using the judicial system as a means to punish his predecessor. Lula is a leftist career politician who was convicted on corruption charges before they were stunningly reversed by activist judges. Right-leaning figures across the nation are being censored, and checks and balances are being curtailed as the legal system is increasingly used as a weapon against opponents. We must be skeptical about charges against Bolsonaro in this environment.
There's a 20% chance that Brazil will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.