REACTION: Bukele Gets Election Boost for Second Term
Americas QuarterlyFeb 05
El Salvador's Bukele Claims Big Election Victory
The Facts
Salvadoran Pres. Nayib Bukele announced that he has been reelected for a second term on Sunday, claiming to have gained more than 85% of the popular vote — reputedly the largest percentage in history — with his New Ideas party winning at least 58 out of the National Assembly's 60 seats.
According to preliminary results from the country's Supreme Electoral Tribunal released on Monday morning after 70% of the ballots had been counted, Bukele led with 83% of the vote while his closest rival, the left-wing Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front, reached only 7%.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The decline of the democratic multi-party system in El Salvador is a matter of fact now, as the Latin American country is once again under a de facto one-party dictatorship that has co-opted state institutions. While Bukele may have recorded a supermajority due to an improvement in security, this nearly unanimous support may wane if his government fails to address the country's dire economic and social conditions.
Establishment-critical narrative
The result for Bukele is an incredible moment — a record-breaking show of support for a leader within the history of global democracy. After an unprecedented popular mandate, El Salvador continues to stand behind the man who has transformed the country for the better and will no doubt continue to lead the nation forward.
Nerd narrative
There is a 20% chance that El Salvador will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.