The war in Gaza may widen. The Biden admin is getting ready for it.
POLITICOJan 04
Iran Blames Israel for Deadly Airstrike, Threatens Retaliation
Image copyright: Majid Saeedi/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Facts
Iran has threatened to retaliate against an alleged Israeli airstrike on Damascus on Saturday, which reportedly killed five members of its Revolutionary Guards and multiple Syrian troops.
This comes as the Washington Post reported that Israel plans to intensify fighting on its northern border with Hezbollah if a long-term deal isn't reached at the earliest opportunity.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The US is doing everything it can to ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas' military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it's not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies and deter regional and global security threats.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel can't allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement isn't made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas' military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel continues to demonstrate that its war isn't against Hamas or Hezbollah but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered large swaths of the strip uninhabitable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and has transformed Gaza into a wasteland. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.
Pro-Iran narrative
Israel, with the full backing of the US, is committing genocide in Gaza, something Iran and its allies can't tolerate. As resistance groups, like the Houthis, show their solidarity with Palestinians by enforcing a blockade on Israel, Pres. Joe Biden must understand that supporting Israel's crimes will only lead to further escalation in the region. The resistance's primary goal is to end the war in Gaza, not spark a far larger regional conflict. However, if the US and Israel continue to flagrantly disregard international law, the resistance may be forced to expand its operations.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that Iran will directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.