Iraqi officials privately signal they want US forces to stay
POLITICOJan 09
Iraq, US Begin Formal Talks on Anti-IS Coalition Future
The Facts
Military officials from the US-led international coalition formed to fight the so-called Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and their local counterparts held a first round of formal talks on Saturday to discuss the future of the decade-old mission, with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani claiming this is the first step to ending it.
According to an Iraqi statement, a timeline to replace the mission with a bilateral security partnership will be decided after the US-Iraq Higher Military Commission reviews operational and environmental requirements, the strengthening of Iraqi security forces, and the threat posed by IS.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Public calls for American troops to leave the country are merely an attempt from the Iraqi government to appease domestic discontent over recent US strikes, with al-Sudani privately acknowledging his willingness to keep US forces in Iraq. As for the US, its military footprint in Iraq is critical not only to prevent a resurgence of IS, but also to counter Iran's influence and to prevent the Gaza war from spreading.
Establishment-critical narrative
Similar to Trump, Biden has failed his duty as commander in chief as troops currently stationed in Iraq and Syria have no clear, attainable mission, instead serving as lightning rods to Iran-backed militia attacks because some bureaucrats in Washington believe that their presence annoys Tehran — and that risking their lives is worth it. It's about time for these servicemen to be brought home.
Nerd narrative
There's a 45% chance that Iraq will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.