Israel: Progress Toward Lebanon Cease-fire, Will Expand Military Operations if Lebanon Says No

Israel: Progress Toward Lebanon Cease-fire, Will Expand Military Operations if Lebanon Says No
Above: Fire brigades and local residents respond to the fire that broke out in the surrounding buildings and cars after the rocket attack fired from Lebanon on Nov. 11, 2024 in Qiryat Ata, Israel. Image copyright: Samir Abdalhade/Contributor/Anadolu via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Though the situation in the region continues to escalate, the US has stood firm in its role as a mediator. Israel has every right to respond to the daily terror attacks it has seen since Oct. 7. However, it is in no one's interest for tensions to explode into a wider regional war. The US will continue to work toward regional stability.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel has been incredibly patient regarding the situation in the north, but, after a year of daily terror attacks on Israeli civilians, Israel has been forced to deal with Hezbollah more aggressively. Israel wants peace, but it cannot allow Hezbollah and other Iran-backed terror groups to threaten its society in such an existential way.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel has escalated the situation in the region every chance it has gotten, with the US supporting it every step of the way. Indeed, Israel has demonstrated that it seeks to expand the genocidal campaign that began in Gaza to Lebanon. Though the US, the most powerful country in the world, has continued its charade that it wants de-escalation, the reality is the US fully supports Israel's crimes across the region.

Narrative D

Though Hezbollah and Lebanon have experienced immense suffering for supporting Palestine against Israel's genocidal actions, the group is capable of fighting for many years to come. It has effectively countered Israel's attempts at advancing into Lebanese territory and will continue to defend Lebanon until a suitable political solution is offered.

Metaculus Prediction


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