New Zealand's dangerous prohibition experiment
Reason FoundationAug 17, 2022
New Zealand Reverses Course on Tobacco Ban
The Facts
New Zealand’s government reversed course on its law prohibiting tobacco sales to future generations on Tuesday. The law had been the first of its kind worldwide.
The ban, agreed upon by the previous Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's administration and scheduled to take effect in July, would have barred the sale of tobacco to anybody born after Jan. 1, 2009, but it's now been revoked as part of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's 100-day plan.
The Spin
Narrative A
It's good news that New Zealand's government has repealed its intended ban. It is likely that the ban would have disproportionately affected the country's indigenous population. A ban would also provide a major incentive for smugglers to import cigarettes. A better way is to increase efforts to educate cigarette smokers about the possible health benefits of switching to safer alternatives, as well as provide more access to smoking cessation services for the Maori minority.
Narrative B
The evidence is clear — smoking is a massive driver of death in New Zealand and the Western world. The former government of Jacinda Ardern acknowledged this in her proposed legislation to protect future generations. The new coalition administration has repealed the prohibition and will announce other steps to reduce smoking that won't be as effective. It will be hard to come up with something as effective as a ban.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that a country will completely ban civilian tobacco consumption and smoking by September 2034, according to the Metaculus prediction community.