What to Make of Kim Jong Un’s Latest Threats of War
HudsonFeb 20
NKorea: Kim Jong Un Oversees Hypersonic Missile Test
The Facts
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reportedly led a successful ground jet of a multi-stage solid-fuel engine for a new-type intermediate-range hypersonic missile on Tuesday.
This development, if confirmed, would indicate progress in efforts to develop a hypersonic missile — one of many high-tech weapons systems that Kim had pledged to introduce in 2021. Pyongyang's Intermediate-range missiles can be designed to hit Guam, home to US military bases.
The Spin
Anti-North Korea Narrative
As much as North Korea wishes to flex its military potential and threaten war with bombastic rhetoric, it would be best for Pyongyang not to push this too far. Its current rate of military drills will be near-impossible to sustain, and the North is well known to suffer extreme economic hardship. Dangerous propaganda and military activity are a mask for a vulnerable nation.
Pro-North Korea narrative
North Korea's recent spate of military drills comes in response to Washington and Seoul speaking of regime change while carrying out joint war games. Were Kim planning to unilaterally wage a war against them — something that's not in his country's best interest — anytime soon, he wouldn't be sending ammunition and missiles to Russia.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Kim Jong Un will no longer be the leader of North Korea by September 2047, according to the Metaculus prediction community.