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Polls: Harris Leading Trump Nationwide, Virtual Tie in Swing States

  • #Politics
  • #Electoral college
  • #United States of America
Polls: Harris Leading Trump Nationwide, Virtual Tie in Swing States
story
OCT 2024
Above: Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, walks onstage during a campaign rally at the Expo at World Market Center on September 29, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Image copyright: Mario Tama/Getty Images News via Getty Images
story last updated OCT 2024

The Spin

Republican narrative

Polls underestimated support for Trump both in 2016 and 2020, so these latest results are actually very positive for the Republican ticket. Compared to previous cycles, this is Trump's best chance to win by a landslide — and even to secure the popular vote.

Washington Examiner

Democratic narrative

Given that Harris has consistently been ahead of Trump in polls, Republicans have resorted to the fact that support for Trump was underestimated in the previous election cycles. One should not expect them to be inaccurate again, though, as pollsters have worked to improve their methodologies.

The Hill

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump


The Controversies


KAMALA HARRISDONALD TRUMP
Status:Resolved
Who Will Win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Controversy
OCT 4 2024OCT 4 2024

Go Deeper

US Electoral System Overview
Context
+12
SEP 2024SEP 2024
US Presidential Election 2024 Overview
Context
+17
SEP 2024SEP 2024

Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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