Ethiopia’s diplomatic retreat: The case of portal deal politics with Somaliland
Modern DiplomacyMar 13
Somalia Expels Ethiopian Ambassador Amid Port Deal Dispute
The Facts
Somalia on Thursday expelled Ethiopia's ambassador and closed the East African country's consulates in Hargeisa, Somaliland's capital, and in Garowe, the capital of the semi-autonomous Puntland.
Somalia's Foreign Ministry ordered Mukhtar Mohamed to leave the country within 72 hours after the office of Prime Minister Abdi Barre accused Ethiopia of violating the country's sovereignty by meddling in its internal affairs.
The Spin
Narrative A
Given the illegal deal between Ethiopia and the separatist Somaliland region, the Somali government's decision is justified. Neither the AU nor the UN recognizes Somaliland as a separate political entity, and the US also denounces Ethiopia's move. If Addis Ababa goes ahead with its plans to finally gain access to the Gulf of Aden, the entire region will destabilize. The only way to resolve the crisis is for Ethiopia to abandon the Somaliland deal.
Narrative B
Shutting down Ethiopia's embassy and consulates is an outrageous overreaction by Mogadishu that will further fuel bilateral tensions. The port deal is a sovereign decision by two independent nations, and by simply not recognizing it, Mogadishu disregards international law and the inherent right to self-determination. Somalia's stance may have dire regional repercussions, and Mogadishu should seek a diplomatic solution rather than damage diplomatic relations.
Narrative C
The escalating Somali-Ethiopian conflict needs to be seen in the context of the growing geopolitical rivalry in the Horn of Africa and its strategic location on the Red Sea. The Gulf States, Turkey, Iran as well as the US, China, and Russia are all involved and Ethiopia's desire to gain access to the sea and the resulting dispute could exacerbate the ongoing Red Sea crisis. All parties need to redouble their efforts to avoid further escalation and promote regional peace and prosperity.
Nerd narrative
There's a 33% chance that Ethiopia will formally recognize Somaliland in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.