Electoral systems

Germany: Merz Claims Victory, Scholz Concedes Defeat

FEB 23 2025·Updated FEB 24 2025

Story

Above: Friedrich Merz. Image credit: Maja Hitij/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

Exit polls from German public broadcasters ARD and ZDF project that the center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) bloc will become the largest party in the next Bundestag, with Friedrich Merz now in position to become Germany's next Chancellor.
BBC News
The Wall Street Journal
The CDU/CSU is expected to have secured up to 29% of the vote on Sunday, followed by the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) at about 20% — its best result ever — and Chancellor Olaf Scholz's center-left Social Democratic Party at 16% — its worst showing since 1887.
DPA International
CNN
The Greens are set to come fourth with up to 13.5%, down from 14.7% in 2021, and the Left Party follows with at least 8.5% of the vote. Meanwhile, the Free Democrats (FDP) and the leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance hover around the 5% threshold to enter parliament.
DPA International
Breitbart
The federal election in Germany took place seven months ahead of schedule, following the collapse of Scholz's coalition with the Greens and the pro-business FDP in November in a row over the country's debt brake that requires the government to limit annual net borrowing to 0.35% of GDP.
Politico
Business Insider
Though final results are expected to be confirmed no earlier than Monday, Merz declared victory as soon as the first projection was released. Meanwhile, Scholz has claimed responsibility for the defeat, and AfD's Alice Weidel has described her party's results as a "historic success."
Breitbart
Politico
Merz now must form a governing coalition before the Bundestag votes to elect the new Chancellor in a secret ballot. Negotiations could take months — and Scholz will continue as caretaker chancellor.
DW
Reuters

Sources Split

LEFT

CENTER

RIGHT

ESTAB
CRIT

CENTER

PRO
ESTAB

The Spin

Narrative A

German voters want a right-wing conservative government to bring real changes, as the mainstream CDU/CSU and the nationalist AfD have emerged as the two largest parties in the Bundestag. That desire, however, will be ignored again as the CDU/CSU refuses to cooperate with parties other than from the left.

The European Conservative

American Conservative

Narrative B

The rise of the far-right AfD threatens post-war values in Germany, so it's pressing that mainstream parties oppose any cooperation with them to prevent normalizing dangerous nationalist ideologies. Earlier this year, Merz broke that firewall to try to pass an anti-migrant resolution. Now, one can only hope he won't do it again.

RTE

The Nation