Canada

Canadian Election: Liberals Hold Narrowing Lead as Campaign Enters Final Week

APR 22 2025·Updated APR 28 2025

Story

Above: People arrive at a polling station to cast their ballots on the last day of advance voting for the upcoming federal election in Toronto, Ontario on April 21, 2025. Image credit: Mert Alper Dervis/Anadolu via Getty Images

The Facts

The Liberal Party maintains a lead of approximately 3–5 percentage points over the Conservatives with less than one week until Canada's federal election, though the gap has narrowed in recent polls, which now show Liberal support around 40–43% compared to 37–40% for the Conservatives.
Global News
CBC News
Angusreid
EKOS Politics
Mainstreet Research
Record-breaking advance voting saw nearly two million Canadians cast ballots on Good Friday alone, with Elections Canada reporting the highest single-day advance poll turnout in history. Election day is the final day to cast a ballot on April 28.
Elections Canada
CTVNews
Nowtoronto
Liberal leader Mark Carney continues to outperform Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre on leadership attributes, particularly regarding handling relations with the United States and representing Canada internationally.
Angusreid
NDTV
The New Democratic Party remains in a distant third place with support ranging between 8-12%, while the Bloc Québécois holds around 6% nationally but approximately 25% in Quebec.
Global News
CP24
Regional polling shows the Liberals leading in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, while Conservatives maintain strong support in the Prairie provinces of Saskatchewan and Alberta, with British Columbia emerging as a key battleground.
338Canada
CP24
Cost of living and U.S. relations under President Donald Trump have emerged as the two dominant issues driving voter decisions, with polls showing these concerns accounting for over 65% of voters' primary considerations.
Abacusdata
INsauga

Sources Split

LEFT

CENTER

RIGHT

ESTAB
CRIT

CENTER

PRO
ESTAB

The Spin

Narrative A

The Liberals have successfully positioned themselves as the party best equipped to handle U.S. trade tensions and protect Canadian sovereignty, while maintaining economic stability and delivering on social programs. Their steady leadership under Carney has resonated with centrist voters who seek experienced management during uncertain times.

National Post

ABC

Narrative B

The Conservative message on affordability and economic management is gaining traction as Canadians struggle with rising costs. Poilievre's consistent focus on domestic issues and fiscal responsibility offers a clear alternative to continued Liberal spending, with momentum building among working-class voters and those under 50.

Angusreid

EKOS Politics

Narrative C

Despite Poilievre’s strong economic message and loyal base, the Conservative Party is struggling to expand its support. Voters agree on issues but are unconvinced Poilievre can deliver. With less than a week to go until election day, the Conservatives face challenges in convincing undecided voters, leaving the door open for Carney’s Liberals to maintain their lead.