Report: North Korea Plans to Send More Troops to Russia

Report: North Korea Plans to Send More Troops to Russia
Above: An alleged North Korean soldier being held after being captured by the Ukrainian army on Jan. 11, 2025. Image copyright: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's Social Media/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images

The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

North Korea's military engagement in Ukraine, alongside Russia, enhances its war capabilities with new tech and experience, making it a more formidable threat regionally. This could lead to increased arms sales and influence globally. The international community must take strategic steps toward hindering this new partnership, including tightening sanctions and monitoring tech transfers to prevent further militarization.

Pro-Russia narrative

While North Korea's offer to aid its new military ally is a noteworthy gesture, Russia doesn't need these troops to defeat Ukraine. In 2024, Russia recruited 490K for service, with 450K signing contracts and 40K volunteering. This recruitment pace shows Russia can meet its military needs without external help, emphasizing that homegrown patriotism and wartime readiness is pushing Moscow toward victory.

Narrative C

Despite understandable theories to the contrary, Pyongyang's enhanced ties with Russia and China, coupled with its robust defense industry for arms sales, are not in preparation for war. Other investments, particularly in rural development and tourism, emphasize North Korea's focus on economic matters. Even with North-South provocations, Pyongyang's restraint signals its prioritization of economic progress over conflict.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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