Climate change

Brazil Declares State of Calamity Over Deadly Floods

Are extreme weather disasters driven by climate change or by local planning failures and natural variability?

Published FEB 25

Brazil Declares State of Calamity Over Deadly Floods

Story

Above: Emergency and rescue teams work after devastating floods in Juiz de Fora, Brazil, on Feb. 25. Image credit: Agência Brasil/Handout/Anadolu/Getty Images

The Facts

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced in a post on X on Tuesday that his government had recognized a state of calamity in Juiz de Fora, a city in the state of Minas Gerais, ordering federal mobilization to assist the local population.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on X
This comes as 40 deaths have been confirmed in Juiz de Fora, with six others in nearby Ubá, as of Wednesday afternoon, following heavy rains and landslides. At least 21 people are still missing, and more than 3,000 residents have been forced to leave their homes.
Agência Brasil
Jovem Pan
The Associated Press
Juiz de Fora recorded its rainiest February on record this year, with rainfall at over 600 mm (23.6 inches), far above the city's historical average for the month, and the local river in Ubá overflowed, reaching 7.82 meters (25.6 feet).
Folha de S. Paulo
Mercopress
Brazil is familiar with floods and landslides, especially in its peak rainy summer months. Brazil's mining regulator has warned companies to inspect dams and waste structures as Minas Gerais, the country's main iron ore-producing state, faces record rainfall.
BBC News
Brazil Stock Guide
Mercopress
On Tuesday, Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology issued a four-day high danger alert for rainfall above 60 mm per hour or 100 mm per day in an area that encompasses Juiz de Fora, Ubá, the states of Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo, and the coast of the state of São Paulo.
INMET
In São João de Meriti, Rio de Janeiro, an 85-year-old woman died and at least 600 people were displaced after rainfall above 100 mm in less than an hour. Meanwhile, Peruíbe, São Paulo, recorded 234 mm over the past three days, with at least 384 people forced out of their homes.
G1
Poder360
Revista Oeste

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The Spin

Narrative A

Increasingly, severe rainstorms and flooding are being linked to global warming and climate change. Warmer weather allows air to retain more water vapor, which is why policies to cool the global temperature, to save lives and avoid billions of dollars in damage should be implemented. Regrettably, the state government of Minas Gerais did just the opposite, meaning that this tragedy is no accident.

Brasil de Fato

The Conversation

Narrative B

It's easy to dismiss extreme weather events as a consequence of climate change, but in reality, they're usually influenced by a myriad of factors. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between the two. In this case, for example, this disaster stems from exceptional rainfall on steep areas, in short and densely urbanized river basins.