Nuclear weapons

Study: AI Models Used Nuclear Weapons 95% of Time in War Simulations

Does military AI lower war barriers and threaten research freedom or enhance security and Western leadership?

Published FEB 25

Study: AI Models Used Nuclear Weapons 95% of Time in War Simulations

Story

Above: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspects an intercontinental ballistic missile in July 2017. Image credit: AFP/KCNA/KNS/Getty Images

The Facts

Recent research by Kenneth Payne of King's College London conducted simulations in which three advanced language models — OpenAI's GPT-5.2, Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 4 and Google's Gemini 3 Flash — played out 21 high-stakes geopolitical crises ranging from border clashes to regime-threatening showdowns.
OODAloop.com
Newser
The AI models deployed at least one tactical nuclear weapon in 95% of the simulated games. When one AI model deployed tactical nuclear weapons, the opposing AI only de-escalated the situation 18% of the time.
New Scientist
Newser
None of the AI models ever chose full surrender or complete accommodation, even when clearly losing. At best, the models opted to temporarily reduce their level of violence.
New Scientist
Newser
The AI models made mistakes during the simulations, with unintended escalations occurring in 86% of conflicts. The models produced around 780,000 words describing the reasoning behind their decisions across 329 turns.
OODAloop.com
Newser
James Johnson of the University of Aberdeen expressed concern that AI agents lack the measured responses of humans in nuclear scenarios. Major powers are already using AI in war gaming, though the extent of AI incorporation into actual military decision-making remains uncertain.
New Scientist
Newser

Sources Split

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The Spin

Techno-skeptic narrative

With studies now showing how AI can cause nuclear escalation and treat battlefield nuclear weapons as routine, integrating AI into nuclear command clearly risks normalizing opaque, escalation-prone systems while also pushing key research behind security clearances. As speed and autonomy grow, human oversight can shrink to rubber-stamping black-box outputs, lowering barriers to first use and raising the risk of catastrophic miscalculation.

King's College London

Harvard Medical School

Techno-optimist narrative

Restricting AI development based on hypothetical risks ignores verification realities and threatens Western technological leadership. International agreements limiting military AI capabilities are fundamentally unverifiable, making self-imposed constraints strategically foolish. Properly deployed AI can actually enhance human control over nuclear weapons through better access control and continuous evaluation systems.

Manhattan Institute

Texas National Security Review