Bolsonaro Expands Lead Over Lula in Prediction Markets, Tie Persists in New Polls
Is Lula's support collapsing as Bolsonaro pulls ahead or is talk of a Bolsonaro surge wishful thinking?
Above: Flávio Bolsonaro rallies supporters in São Paulo on Sept. 7. Image credit: Isabella Finholdt/Nur Photo/Getty Images
The Spin
Government-critical narrative
Even pollsters whose methods tilt against the right can no longer hide the collapse of support for Lula, and betting markets where real money is at stake confirm Bolsonaro is pulling ahead. Welfare increases and a spending spree in the billions reveal pure panic from a government watching its numbers slip. Voters can see through this vote buying attempt.
Pro-government narrative
The talk of a Bolsonaro surge is wishful thinking as spontaneous surveys actually put Lula within striking distance of winning the election outright in the first round. After a whole week of opposition offensive, the numbers have barely moved. Furthermore, polls have yet to capture welfare hikes and Lula's crusade against gambling.
