Canada

Canada: Carney Calls April 13 By-Elections in Three Ridings

Will the Bloc Québécois triumph in Terrebonne or will the Liberals sweep all three byelections?

Published MAR 10

Canada: Carney Calls April 13 By-Elections in Three Ridings

Story

Above: Canadian Parliament Building on Parliament Hill, Ottawa, on Oct. 6, 2025. Image credit: Iryna Tolmachova/Getty Images

The Facts

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced on Sunday that by-elections will be held on April 13 in the University-Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest ridings in Toronto, as well as the Terrebonne electoral district in Quebec.
Prime Minister of Canada
Elections Canada
The University-Rosedale riding became vacant after former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland stepped down in January following her acceptance of a position as an unpaid adviser on economic issues to the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Chrystia Freeland on X
House of Commons of Canada
Scarborough Southwest, by contrast, came into contention after Bill Blair resigned from the seat on Feb. 2 to fulfill his appointment as Canada's High Commissioner to the U.K. Doly Begum will be the Liberal candidate for the riding, following her defection from the NDP.
Prime Minister of Canada
House of Commons of Canada
Liberal Party
The Terrebonne by-election, meanwhile, was precipitated by the Supreme Court of Canada's decision to overturn the district's April 2025 election results in February, after the Liberal's Tatiana Auguste was initially declared the winner by a single vote over Bloc candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné.
Supreme Court of Canada
Elections Canada
If the Liberals were to win all three ridings, the government would gain a majority in the Canadian House of Commons by bringing the party's seat count to 172 from its current 169, a figure bolstered in recent months by defections from the Conservatives.
House of Commons of Canada
House of Commons of Canada
In addition to election day, Elections Canada confirmed that electors will be able to cast their votes on advance polling days from April 3 to April 6, at Elections Canada offices until April 7 or by mail if they apply by April 7.
Elections Canada

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The Spin

Narrative A

Bloc Québécois is in a prime position to emerge triumphant in the upcoming Terrebonne by-election. Fresh off securing a historic Supreme Court victory recognizing the injustice of the last election, the Bloc and Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné remain the only viable choice for the people of Terrebonne, as both a voice for Quebec and a check against federal power.

Bloc Québécois

Narrative B

More likely than not, the upcoming by-elections will be a clean sweep for Carney and the incumbent Liberal government. With Toronto a Liberal stronghold and the party possessing a massive three-to-one spending advantage over the Bloc in Terrebonne, it is difficult to see how any opposition party can pull off an upset to prevent a Liberal majority government.

Toronto Sun

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