Japan, Taiwan and China Brace for Typhoon Dolphin

Is the typhoon expected given the weather patterns — or is this a rather unusual occurrence?
Japan, Taiwan and China Brace for Typhoon Dolphin
Above: Staff at a port in Wenzhou in China's Zhejiang province strengthen moorings on Aug. 5, 2026. Image credit: Cai Kuanyuan/Xinhua/Getty Images

The Facts

  • Evacuation orders were issued for nearly 260,000 people and over 500 flights were canceled in Japan's southern islands ahead of the arrival of Typhoon Dolphin.
  • The Japan Meteorological Agency said that, as of Friday afternoon, the westward-moving typhoon was nearing the strip of islands between Okinawa and Kyushu and was traveling with maximum winds of 144 kph (89 mph).
  • Officials said that three men, each in their 70s, were injured at this stage. It comes as the island of Kyushu is still recovering from a 7.1-magnitude earthquake last week in which 38 people were killed and there was damage to a large number of houses.

Sources Split


The Spin


Narrative A

Typhoon Dolphin is already the fifth Category 5 typhoon of this year and this is what one can expect during the warm waters of a strong El Niño event. For instance, the very strong El Niño year of 1997 saw 11 super typhoons in the Northwest Pacific.

Narrative B

While this is the 13th typhoon of 2026, this is a rare event because Typhoon Dolphin developed just west of the International Date Line. It is very unusual for typhoons to travel that distance and still reach mainland China.


Metaculus Prediction


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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.18.3

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.18.3