Climate change

UN: 75% Chance Earth Tops 1.5°C by 2030

Is this a climate crisis or just natural weather variation?

Published MAY 28

Story

Above: A tourist uses a fan to shield from the sun at the Sagrada Familia cathedral during high temperatures in Barcelona, Spain, on May 27. Image credit: Angel Garcia/Bloomberg/Getty Images

The Facts

The U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization released a report projecting that global average temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average, with a 75% chance the five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C.
Businessgreen
Jakarta Globe
World Meteorological Organization
The WMO report puts an 86% probability on at least one year between 2026 and 2030 surpassing 2024 as the hottest year on record, and a 91% chance that at least one year will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold.
NBC
Gazeta Express
An El Niño event is forecast to develop this year, with a 96% chance of occurring between December 2026 and February 2027, raising the likelihood that 2027 could set a new global temperature record.
ENCA
Gazeta Express
guardian
The report projects Arctic winters over the next five years will average 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 baseline — more than three times the global mean temperature anomaly — while Arctic sea ice is expected to continue shrinking in summer.
LBC
ABC News
The WMO report warns of drier conditions in the Amazon basin, increasing wildfire risk and potentially reducing the rainforest's capacity to absorb carbon dioxide, while the Sahel region is forecast to receive above-normal rainfall.
Jakarta Globe
INQUIRER.net
ABC News
The WMO report was produced by the U.K. Met Office and draws on forecasts from 13 institutes worldwide, based on around 200 computer simulation runs. Scientists note that temporary breaches of the 1.5°C threshold do not mean the Paris Agreement's long-term goals are unattainable.
RTE.ie
standard.co.uk

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The Spin

Climate-concerned narrative

Climate change is making heat waves hotter, longer and more deadly. The fossil fuel industry spent decades lying about the science while locking society into heat-trapping emissions, and now 136 million Americans are sweltering under dangerous heat indexes. Extreme heat is already the top weather-related killer in the U.S., and without serious action, this brutal summer could be the coolest one left.

Jeff Berardelli on X

The Equation

Climate-skeptic narrative

Record high temperatures across are nothing new. In the U.S., 36 of 50 state heat records were set more than five decades ago, and 23 were set in the 1930s when CO2 emissions were a fraction of today's levels. Global average temperature records spanning 150 years represent a tiny sliver of Earth's 4.5-billion-year history, making alarm over "unprecedented" heat deeply misleading.

Chris Martz on X

The Heartland Institute