Climate change

UN Report: 1.5°C Window Shut, World Heading Toward 2.8°C Warming

Is net zero a costly experiment built on shaky climate science or is giving up on 1.5°C locking in harm for the poorest?

2 hours ago·Updated 1 hour ago

UN Report: 1.5°C Window Shut, World Heading Toward 2.8°C Warming

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Above: Stock photo of smoke billowing from a chimney against a setting sun. Image credit: Unsplash

The Facts

The U.N. Environment Programme's annual Emissions Gap Report, released Wednesday, projects warming of 2.6°C by 2100 if nations fully deliver their climate pledges and 2.8°C if current policies continue, both beyond Paris Agreement goals.
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Reuters
NDTV
The report found that the window to hold warming to 1.5°C has closed and outlined the lowest-possible overshoot scenario, in which peak warming reaches 1.7°C to 1.8°C around mid-century before temperatures return to 1.5°C or below by 2100.
The Guardian
Daily Mail
Following that pathway would require global greenhouse gas emissions to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 from 2025 levels. Full delivery of current national plans would cut emissions by just 5% to 8% by 2030, the report said.
UNEP
Reuters
EuroNews
Preliminary 2025 data show U.S. emissions rose by 133 megatons of CO2 equivalent, more than any other nation, driven by higher electricity demand and a rebound in coal power. About 70% of the global increase of 189 million tons came from the U.S.
NDTV
Fox 59
Returning to 1.5°C would require removing roughly 320 gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere this century, the report said, adding, carbon dioxide removal is not "a substitute for emissions reductions."
UNEP
Daily Mail
CNN
COP31 climate talks will take place in Antalya, Turkey, from Nov. 9 to 20. The next global stocktake, a Paris Agreement review of national emissions targets, is scheduled for 2028.
The Guardian
EuroNews

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The Spin

Climate-skeptic narrative

Natural swings like El Niño and megadroughts that raged centuries before smokestacks show the carbon panic rests on shaky ground. Swapping cheap, reliable baseload power for intermittent wind and solar has hollowed out Western industry and handed China the supply chain. Net zero is the costliest experiment ever forced on voters who never got a say.

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Climate-concerned narrative

Pretending the climate crisis is a hoax does nothing to stop the floods, heatwaves and wildfires already battering communities every year. Renewables have scaled up faster than anyone predicted and smart policy has already cut emissions in sector after sector, so the excuse that cleaning up is impossible rings hollow. Giving up on 1.5°C just locks in harm for the poorest.

UNEP