Controversy
Status:Open

Will Justice Samuel Alito Announce his Retirement From the Supreme Court Before July 2027?

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Claims

Polymarket
Polymarket"There is a 36% chance that Justice Samuel Alito will announce his retirement from the Supreme Court by June 30, 2027."Sep 01, 2026
Samuel Alito
Samuel Alito “Obviously I’m here for another term.”Sep 01, 2026
Mark Joseph Stern
Mark Joseph Stern"But there are some indications that this particular release will be a farewell postscript for Alito’s service."Feb 14, 2026
Michael C. Dorf
Michael C. Dorf"Like most Justices, he would almost certainly like to be replaced by a like-minded jurist, which cannot be guaranteed after the 2026 midterm election."Sep 01, 2026
Elie Mystal
Elie Mystal“It sure feels like Alito doesn’t plan on having a real job the Tuesday his book launches and instead thinks he’ll be free to run around the country promoting it.”Feb 26, 2026
CBS News
CBS NewsSources close to Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito confirm that he is not planning to retire this year.Apr 18, 2026
Federal News Network
Federal News Network"If Alito, 76, were to step down, it would provide the GOP a bottom line issue to pull fence-sitters to their side in the midterms."Apr 20, 2026
Manifold
Manifold"There is a 64% chance that Samuel Alito will retire/die next."Jul 01, 2026
David Lat
David Lat"Two out of three predicted that he’s not going anywhere, at least for now — and I concur."Feb 26, 2026
Off Message
Off Message"Sam Alito and Clarence Thomas will both retire."Dec 31, 2025
Coinbase
Coinbase"There is a 24% chance that Justice Alito will retire from the Supreme Court before Before Jul 1, 2027."Sep 01, 2026
Kate Shaw
Kate Shaw"Alito could announce in the next few weeks that he will step down at the end of the term."Sep 01, 2026
Kalshi
Kalshi"There is a 64% chance that Samuel Alito will resign during Trump’s term."Sep 01, 2026
ABC News
ABC News"Is not expected to leave the bench this year, sources close to the justice have told ABC News."Apr 18, 2026
Melissa Murray
Melissa Murray“The signs are not looking great for the Republicans in the midterms”—and if Republicans were to lose control of the Senate, that would make it much more difficult to confirm a nominee in the mold of Alito.Feb 26, 2026
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.13.0

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.13.0