Will the US Economy Enter a Recession in 2026?

Discuss on

UNLIKELYLIKELY

Claims

Last Updated 1 week ago

RSM US"We estimate a 30% probability of a recession over the next 12 months, up from 20% before the war."Aug 27, 2026

RSM US

Jan Hatzius"We have shaved our 12-month US recession probability from 30% to 25% as economic activity has held up well and our financial conditions index has eased back below pre-war levels."May 11, 2026

Business Insider

Hady Farag“People are preparing themselves for the fact that we are already in a recession now or that there is a high likelihood we will soon be in one.”Mar 30, 2026

CNN

JPMorgan"Looking at the economy, J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts a 35% probability of a U.S. and global recession in 2026, and sticky inflation will likely remain a prevailing theme."Apr 15, 2025

J.P. Morgan Research

RBC"We did the math and found it would take more than one million job losses before the US faced a true technical recession. That makes odds of one in 2026 low, even as we remain mindful of growing risks around our base case."Jun 24, 2026

RBC Economics

Moody's Analytics"Moody’s Analytics model forecasts a 49% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months, the closest probability in years."Mar 18, 2026

Euronews

Ernst & Young"We now place the probability of recession at 40%, with risks skewed higher if the conflict intensifies."Aug 27, 2026

The Wall Street Journal"Economists placed the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 33%, up from 27% in the January survey."Apr 22, 2026