13 Killed as Iran Targets Dissidents in Iraq
On Wednesday, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said it had fired missiles and drones at militant targets in the Kurdish region of Iraq, killing 13 people and wounding 58, according to Iraqi officials.
The headquarters of three Iranian Kurdish opposition parties were reportedly targeted, but there were reports of civilian areas also being hit. This was the first Iranian attack inside Iraq since March.
Anti-Iran narrative
Though Iranian attacks on Iraqi soil are not new, the IRGC seems to be escalating their attacks by bombing civilian regions and regions close to the Iraqi government and US forces. With the regime failing to quash simmering protests at home, Iran is using its military might to devastate Kurdish opposition forces across the border and destabilize the region.
Pro-Iran narrative
The IRGC warned Kurdish officials multiple times that it was unacceptable for terrorist and secessionist groups to freely operate in northern Iraq. However, local authorities ignored these messages, leaving no other option than this operation. Meanwhile, the media and Iraqi Kurdish officials falsely accuse Iran of killing civilians, when they hit military targets only.
US Maintains Refugee Admissions Cap At 125k
According to government statistics, the Biden administration plans to retain its goal of receiving up to 125k refugees in the next fiscal year, after it fell short of the same objective in the fiscal year of 2022.
125k, as well as the goal, is the cap on the maximum number of refugees that would be admitted through the program. The number doesn't include 180k Ukrainians and Afghans who will be admitted into the US through "humanitarian parole" - refugees who enter America through this route are entitled to a maximum stay of two years.
Democratic narrative
Biden has set an ambitious target, but it's a benchmark he needs to reach if he's committed to rebuilding and strengthening the US Refugee Admissions Program. Experts on global humanitarian aid feel 125k is a justified goal, considering the turmoil and instability threatening peoples' lives and safety across the globe. America has a moral responsibility to help those less fortunate and give them a new start.
Republican narrative
There is no reason the US should be permitting more refugees to enter the country, when over two million illegal immigrants have crossed the southern border this year alone. After the federal government has let them in, immigrants will not be going to the wealthy Democrat neighbourhoods that supported these policies, but to GOP-supporting, working-class towns.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that at least 265k refugees will be admitted to the US in total between 2021 and 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Taliban to Buy Russian Oil, Gas and Wheat
On Wednesday, a Taliban-appointed spokesman to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry confirmed that Kabul signed an agreement with Russia to import key commodities "within days or weeks," including fuel and wheat, at a "special discount."
This comes following reports that the countries had struck an agreement, marking the Taliban's first major economic deal since returning to power in 2021. Moscow agreed to supply about 1M tons of gasoline, 1M tons of diesel, 500K tons of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and 2M tons of wheat.
Narrative A
The significance of the agreement between Russia and the Taliban government shouldn't be underestimated. While the West is running out of options to continue exerting influence in Afghanistan, Russia and China are in the process of filling the vacuum left by the withdrawal. It's clear that sanctions have failed; now, it's time for the West to take action to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a pariah state.
Narrative B
Despite the agreement between the Taliban and Moscow, Russia doesn't have much to offer Afghanistan, given that its economy is increasingly standing on shaky ground itself following the Ukraine war — it's China and Pakistan that will benefit most from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Even a possible official recognition of the Taliban government by Moscow is unlikely to change this.
Nerd narrative
There's a 70% chance that Russia will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 218 Roundup: Fourth Leak Reported on Nordstream Pipelines; US to More Than Double Ukraine's HIMARS Capabilities
A fourth leak on the Nordstream pipelines was reported on Thursday, after blasts earlier in the week caused unknown quantities of methane to escape into the Baltic Sea. Sweden's coast guard told the country's TT news agency that they have a vessel at the site of the leak, adding that all four leaks were in international waters – two near Sweden and two near Denmark.
Some European officials and energy experts have alleged Russia was responsible, while others warned against apportioning blame until a full investigation has been carried out. Meanwhile, Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Thursday alleged – without providing evidence – that "US intelligence services" were involved.
Anti-Russia narrative
If Russia's role in these pipeline attacks is confirmed, then Europe's energy crisis is entering a new and dangerous phase. If Russia targets Western energy and communication infrastructure under the sea, it could draw the US and NATO into direct conflict with the Russian Navy, raising a host of security concerns.
Pro-Russia narrative
Attempts to pin these attacks on Moscow are typical of Washington's thinking, particularly in light of the fact that US warships were sighted near the location of the blasts a day prior. We have to ask who really benefits the most from attacks on Russian gas routes, particularly in light of Biden commenting that he would "bring an end" to Nord Stream 2.
Nerd narrative
According to the Metaculus prediction community, there's a 2% chance any NATO country will trigger Article 5 – its collective defense agreement – before December 31, 2022.
Amnesty: Meta Owes Rohingya Reparations
Amnesty International released a report on Wednesday accusing Facebook’s parent company Meta of fueling violence against the Rohingya Muslim minority in Myanmar, and said that it owes the Rohingya reparations.
The report argues that Facebook’s algorithms “proactively amplified” anti-Rohingya content and that Meta disregarded civilians’ and activists’ pleas to curtail hate speech on the social media platform and profited from increased engagement.
Establishment-critical narrative
Facebook helped fuel a genocide against Myanmar's Rohingya people and must be held accountable for putting profits over lives. The social media platform became an echo chamber for bigotry and hate that led to the death of thousands and the ethnic cleansing of hundreds of thousands more. The only way Meta can help alleviate the situation is by providing reparations to those who lost everything due to its complicity in genocide.
Pro-establishment narrative
The report confers egregiously false motives to Facebook. The company openly denounced the crimes committed against the Rohingya people and made a concerted effort to curb hate speech, including by banning all entities linked to the Tatmadaw from advertising on the platform, taking down over 100 accounts linked to military-controlled businesses, and building a dedicated team of Burmese speakers to identify and remove hate speech.
Narrative C
International stakeholders - including social media companies - should stop meddling in Myanmar's affairs for their political purposes. For example, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army carried out terrorist attacks in Rakhine, killing innocent civilians and law enforcement, and forcing locals to flee to Bangladesh. The government had to take action to restore peace and stability in the region and did so by existing rules and regulations.
China’s Mars Rover Finds Hints of Catastrophic Floods
According to an analysis published in the journal Nature, China's "Zhurong" rover, which landed on Mars in 2021, may have uncovered evidence of two significant flood events from the planet's deep history.
The area of focus, known as "Utopia Planitia," consists of large plains in the planet's northern hemisphere. Zhurong used radar to peer below the surface and found geological evidence for large-scale floods that moved sediments around 3B years ago.
Narrative A
The studies on Mars continue to roll in, and it's looking resoundingly like the Red Planet is wetter than it appears. Even if the water is below the surface today, eons ago, oceans could have harbored life, which has implications for understanding our place in the Cosmos. These are exciting times to be alive.
Narrative B
It's great that we're learning about catastrophic floods on Mars, but we need to learn much more about climate-catalyzed issues on Earth. There are more detailed maps of Mars and Venus than there are of our planet's oceans — which hold the key to understanding our warming world. It's essential to understand the nooks and crannies of Planet Earth before we do so for any other planet.
Nerd narrative
There 's a 20% chance that conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life will be discovered within our solar system by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Latin American Environmentalists Most At Risk Of Murder
According to a report by the international advocacy group Global Witness, more environmentalists were killed in Latin America than in any other region of the world last year.
The group reported that 200 environmentalists were killed globally in 2021, three-quarters of whom were from Latin America. While this is less than the reported 227 deaths in 2020, countries including Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil saw an increase and accounted for over half of the total killings.
Narrative A
These alarming numbers highlight a growing global issue that not only disproportionately affects minorities and tramples human rights but also risks ecological collapse. Activists — who play a crucial role as the first line of defense for the environment — are being brutally killed, and as the climate crisis intensifies, so will the attacks. It's up to governments to protect them and hold those responsible accountable for their crimes.
Narrative B
While governments certainly need to take prompt action, they first need to start by looking within By turning a blind eye — as too often happens — governments aren't just witnesses to these horrific murders but rather are fully complicit. This goes beyond homicide in some cases, edging dangerously close to the territory of assassination and state-sanctioned violence.
World’s First All-Electric Passenger Plane Takes Flight
On Tuesday, a prototype all-electric nine-passenger commuter aircraft took off from Washington State's Grant County International Airport, marking a significant milestone for carbon-pollution-free aviation.
Eviation Aircraft, based in Arlington, Wash., developed the plane named "Alice." The zero-emissions plane is powered by two 640-kilowatt electric motors, and its inaugural eight-minute flight reached an altitude of 3,500 feet (1,070 meters).
Narrative A
This marks the start of the next exciting era of aviation. Eviation has successfully electrified the skies with this unforgettable first flight, showing the world what affordable, clean, and sustainable aviation looks and sounds like. Alice's first flight was a momentous occasion for the aviation industry.
Narrative B
The sky is unlikely to be filled with all-electric planes anytime soon. Scientists still have to push lithium-ion technology to unknown limits or make batteries using other types of chemistry. It's unclear if the FAA will know how to certify electric planes as safe for passenger flights before 2028. Implementing an overhaul to electric planes would be extremely challenging.
Nerd narrative
There is a 45% chance that by 2050, it will be possible to purchase a zero-emissions flight from New York to London for less than half US weekly household income, according to the Metaculus Prediction Community.
Australia: Optus to Pay for Data Breach
After a cyber attack on telecommunications company Optus compromised the data of around 10M customers last week, the Australian government on Wednesday called for the company to pay to replace the stolen documents to avoid identity fraud.
The most sensitive data compromised included the passports and driver's licenses of around 2.8M customers and some people's healthcare ID numbers. However, the health minister said the government hasn't yet decided whether Medicare cards need to be replaced.
Establishment-critical narrative
Australians' data wasn't stolen through a complex and sophisticated attack; rather, Optus was left incredibly vulnerable through its own dereliction. Not only should Optus pay to replace all of the documents, but it should face extra financial penalties for its recklessness. It's time telecom companies take responsibility for their lax cybersecurity and the government raise the standards through legislation.
Pro-establishment narrative
Cyber hacks are an increasing trend in today's digital world, and hacks like these aren't unique to Optus. The company now faces repercussions far beyond just fines the inevitable damage to its reputation will likely far outweigh any punishment the government can impose.
Highland Park Shooting Survivors Sue Smith & Wesson
Survivors and families of those killed in the July 4 mass shooting at a parade in Highland Park, Ill. filed 11 lawsuits Wednesday against gun manufacturer Smith & Wesson.
The suit alleges that the gun manufacturer should've known its ads would appeal to potentially dangerous, “impulsive young men.” The ads reportedly used a shooter’s point-of-view popular in video games.
Left narrative
Landmark lawsuits like this are likely to continue to hold gun manufacturers responsible for their weapons being used to commit atrocities. In turn, companies will look to avoid these suits by making their products safer and stopping their targeted advertising. Litigation is a major tool for fighting back against these mass shooting tragedies.
Right narrative
It’s absurd to think that marketing by the gun industry causes acts of mass violence. When marketing a gun’s concealability, magazine capacity, or effectiveness, manufacturers are appealing to lawful gun users and can’t be accountable if a few end up in the hands of criminals. The government and activists should focus their energy and lawsuits on the criminals instead of the gun companies.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 1.38 small firearms per capita in the USA by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.