North Korea Tests Another Missile and Flies Warplanes Near Border with South
On Thurs., North Korean state media said that the People's Army had successfully test-fired two long-range strategic cruise missiles on Wed., supposedly confirming the reliability and operation of nuclear-capable weapons with a longer range.
The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) claimed that the cruise missiles flew oval and figure-8 pattern for roughly three hours over the Yellow Sea before hitting their intended targets 1,240 miles (2,000 km) away.
Kim Jong-un reportedly supervised the tests and stressed it was another warning to its "enemies" that the North will continue to expand its nuclear deterrence and its readiness to take the initiative in any crucial military crisis and war crisis.
Republican narrative
You can’t blame Kim Jong-un for flexing North Korea’s military muscle when Biden is recklessly saber-rattling with Taiwan and China. How does Kim know the US won't also team up with South Korea for an invasion of the North? Trump's relationship with and policies towards North Korea maintained stability in the Korean Peninsula.
Democratic narrative
Kim Jong-Un's geopolitical actions have been erratic, and his missile launches are destabilizing the Peninsula. Instead of provoking a confrontation, the leader should take the Biden administration up on its offer to meet without preconditions, and settle any of his grievances peacefully. Biden is showing strength and prudence in the region.
Nerd narrative
There is a 33% chance that, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by 2050, there will be at least one resulting fatality in North Korea, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden Releases National Security Strategy
On Wednesday, the Biden administration released its new national security strategy - it focuses on Beijing and Moscow as the two major threats the US faces in the world and emphasizes America's goal to pursue a "free, open, prosperous, and secure world."
The new assessment claims that China and Russia pose different challenges despite being "increasingly aligned with each other." It details that the US will, "prioritize maintaining an enduring competitive edge over the PRC while constraining a still profoundly dangerous Russia.”
The strategy expresses long-term worries about China, stating that it “is the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to advance that objective.”
Establishment-critical narrative
The goals laid out in the Biden administration's first national security strategy harken to the dark days of the Cold War and will eventually bring instability and conflicts across the world, through their binary opposition mindset and zero-sum thinking. Despite claiming to seek diplomacy over aggression, Wednesday's announcement indicates that the US seeks to launch geopolitical competition against other countries.
Pro-establishment narrative
The US must be honest about the threat China and Russia pose to global stability. The US is still willing to work with China when the countries’ values align, but as long as the nation continues to expand its military, the US must be prepared to defend liberal and democratic values. Moscow's hostility and recent military aggression demonstrate it poses a threat, and it's important that the US fortifies NATO's eastern flank and builds energy resiliency at home and among allies.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that there will be a US-China war by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Amnesty: Latvia Mistreating Migrants on Belarus Border
Amnesty International has alleged in a new report that migrants trying to cross from Belarus to Latvia have been "violently" beaten and humiliated by border authorities, with some even subjected to alleged torture.
Latvia has denied claims that officials used excessive force, instead referring to the migration as "illegal crossings," despite the possibility of violating EU law.
The Director of Amnesty International's European Institutions Office, Eve Geddie, has claimed that "Latvia has given refugees and migrants a cruel ultimatum" which often leads to "detention, unlawful returns, and torture."
Narrative A
Refugees and migrants have been brutally treated by Latvian border control while being arbitrarily held at undisclosed sites in Latvian forests. This report follows similar reports from Belarus, Poland, and Lithuania in what is a clear breach of EU and international law. This is an egregious violation of fundamental human rights.
Narrative B
The report makes inflammatory allegations of widespread border abuse based on the testimony of only 17 people - most of whom were Iraqi nationals who had very little idea of the legality of their crossing. Amnesty International has seen its reputation decline in recent months over its coverage of Ukraine. This report is unfair and out of context.
Switzerland Proposes $1k Fines for Burqa Ban Violations
New proposals could reportedly see fines of up to 1,000 Swiss francs (around $1,005) issued to anyone who violates restrictions on face coverings in Switzerland. Penalties for those who break the ban have already been diluted after the cabinet refused calls to anchor the law in the criminal code.
A ban on all face coverings in public, including religious veils, was passed last year following a binding referendum on the issue. The so-called "burqa ban" received narrowly more support than opposition, and was brought by the same group that launched restrictions on new minarets in 2009.
According to the Swiss administration, "the ban on covering faces aims to ensure public safety and order. Punishment is not the priority." The administration has also suggested that aircraft settings, diplomatic premises, and places of worship all be made exempt from restrictions, while coverings for health or safety reasons, or linked to climatic conditions or local customs will also remain valid.
Progressive narrative
A number of European countries, as well as the Canadian province of Quebec, have adopted "secularist" laws that prohibit the wearing of religious symbols in public, including religious dress. Such laws reflect a homogenization of society and repression of the diverse experiences and motivations people have for expressing their religion through clothing, especially Muslim women. Denying them the ability to choose whether to wear a veil removes their autonomy and sense of self.
Conservative narrative
Europe is the beacon of secular liberal democracy and, where public spaces are shared by such multicultural and diverse groups as make up many populations in European countries, rules about dress can and should be imposed to stop any one group from dominating another. Islamists thrive on the idea of Muslims being a society-within-a-society - governments must put a stop to such notions to prevent sectarian fractures.
Cynical narrative
This ban is Islamophobic and aimed at tackling a non-existent problem, as muslims are already well integrated in Swiss society. The right-wing are simply using the niqab to rally support and give the population something to project their fears onto.
Mali: At Least 11 Killed, Dozens Injured in Bus Blast
On Thursday, at least 11 people were killed and 53 injured after a bus traveling on the road between Bandiagara and Goundaka in the Mopti area of Mali — a region known as a hotbed for violence by roaming armed groups — hit an explosive device.
For over a decade, the West African country has struggled with an armed conflict between the Malian government and insurgent groups, that has reportedly claimed thousands of lives and displaced hundreds of thousands.
The insurgent groups are known to use mines and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) that can be detonated remotely or explode on impact. Last year, IEDs and mines reportedly killed 103 people and injured 297.
Pro-establishment narrative
The fallout from the Malian government's hostility towards France and its European partners is becoming increasingly apparent. Now that the shadowy Russian Wagner group is active in the country, the security situation is rapidly deteriorating. Wagner isn't focused on the people's security but rather on the pursuit of its own and Moscow's interests. The West is now well-advised to offer its anti-terror support to countries in West Africa.
Establishment-critical narrative
The West's moves in resource-rich Mali, and in the entirety of the Sahel, aren't motivated by the fight against jihadist insurgents, to promote democracy, or to secure a "rule-based order." Western members of the UN are only concerned with defending their own geostrategic interests - including against Russia. The so-called stabilization mission MINUSMA serves only as a tool for power projection, after the end of French neo-colonialism in Mali.
Day 233 Roundup: Russia to Evacuate Citizens from Annexed Kherson Region; Ukraine Strikes Russia's Belgorod Region
Russian deputy prime minister Marat Khusnullin said on Thursday that the country's government would assist residents of the recently annexed Kherson region in southern Ukraine to evacuate "to other regions of the country," after a plea from a Russian-appointed official in the region.
Vladimir Saldo, a former mayor of Kherson city and now Russia's head of the wider region, called on the Russian government to help relocate residents he said were in danger from increased Ukrainian shelling. Saldo's current role means he is wanted for treason by Ukrainian officials.
Meanwhile, Russian officials in the border region of Belgorod, which has frequently come under Ukrainian attack, said Ukrainian missiles struck an ammunition depot in the village of Oktyabrsky, killing and injuring an unspecified number of people. Debris from the activation of missile defenses reportedly fell near a railroad, bringing disruption to local train services.
Anti-Russia narrative
While Ukraine's counteroffensive continues to press on, Russia's decision to evacuate residents from Kherson reveals that Moscow's hold on territories it claims to have annexed is weakening.
Pro-Russia narrative
The decision to help evacuate residents of Kherson is simply about saving lives - the announcement does not mean Russia is planning a mass evacuation from the territory, nor that Russian forces have plans to retreat.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Ukraine will regain control of Kherson by Dec. 20, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Extends COVID Public Health Emergency
On Thursday, the Biden admin. extended the COVID public health emergency through Jan. 11. The move comes after Biden declared the pandemic "over" last month during an interview, though officials are warning of a possible surge in cases over the winter.
The public health emergency — first declared by former Pres. Trump in January 2020 and since renewed every 90 days — expanded Medicaid to those who would otherwise be ineligible, opened telehealth, or remote, services to Medicaid, and enabled emergency authorization of vaccines.
The extension comes as some public health officials urge everyone aged five and older to get an updated vaccine booster for the Omicron variant, while Biden is requesting billions more in funding for vaccine and test distribution.
Republican narrative
Biden declared the pandemic over, yet his admin. continues to abuse the emergency declaration — renewed 11 times — allowing the government to bloat its budget, stifle private insurance competition, and steal public health policy power away from the states. This government overreach must end, and federal emergency laws must be reconsidered.
Democratic narrative
COVID isn’t done with us, and the steady flow of cases and deaths proves it. Extending the emergency declaration keeps millions of potential COVID patients on Medicaid so doctors can treat them more easily. The order also allows Congress to provide funds needed for vaccines, tests, and other important COVID-related resources more easily. This is a logical option.
Nerd narrative
There's a 24% chance that any US state will re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
PACE Calls on EU to Recognize Russia as Terrorist Regime
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), an international organization of European lawmakers separate from the EU, voted on Thursday almost unanimously in favor of a resolution calling on European countries to classify Russia as a terrorist regime.
99 out of 100 members, who are drawn from 46 European parliaments, voted in support of the resolution, with just one Turkish MP, a member of the Republican People’s Party, abstaining.
The resolution demanded Russia “completely and unconditionally withdraw its occupying forces" from Ukraine and chastised Moscow for what it called “indiscriminate attacks." It also accused Russia of advancing "its terrorist policy to suppress the will of Ukrainians to resist and defend their country and provoke maximum harm to civilians.”
Pro-establishment narrative
An overwhelming number of countries have Ukraine’s back, and more might soon join in opposing Russia’s aggression. This vote is confirmation that Russia's actions are terrorism and, since no one should negotiate with terrorists, this conflict can only end by beating Russia militarily.
Establishment-critical narrative
The West must be careful with how it demonizes the Kremlin. Designating Russia a terrorist regime is a dangerous move that corners Putin — whose threats of nuclear weapons must be taken seriously — and will only backfire by damaging future peace efforts. Once this route is taken, there's no going back, and this isn't the right time or the right tool.
UK: Truss Confirms New Tax U-Turn
During a news conference on Friday after the sacking of chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, UK PM Liz Truss reversed plans to scrap a rise in corporation tax from 19% to 25% in a bid to "reassure the markets."
In her speech, Truss stated that she would not resign, saying, "I am absolutely determined to see through what I have promised," and reaffirmed that a "low tax, high wage, high growth economy" was a goal that "remains."
This marks the second reversal from the controversial "mini-budget" announced on Sept. 23. Despite the U-turn, the sterling fell approximately 1.1% against the dollar after Truss' speech.
Left narrative
Truss was never going to make a good PM, and it's now too late for her to be just an ordinarily bad one. Her lackluster speech saw her avoid responsibility and refuse to apologize, likely losing what little support she had left. It's clear that time's up for the self-serving Conservative party, which has demolished its credibility completely.
Right narrative
The antigrowth coalition has wrongly, albeit successfully, pointed its finger at the government for the current — and worldwide — economic turmoil, and Truss has foolishly submitted to its pressure. Rather than sticking with the government's original agenda, the embattled PM has embarrassingly backpedaled — a futile and dangerous move that won't see a recovering economy. U-turns on tax cuts aren't the answer.
Nerd narrative
There is a 17% chance that cost of living riots will happen in the UK before March 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Suspect Arrested in North Carolina Mass Shooting
On Thursday, a 15-year-old male suspect was in custody and critical condition at a local hospital after he allegedly opened fire in Raleigh, NC, killing at least five people and wounding several others.
The shooter allegedly fired his first shots along a walking trail on Thursday afternoon and evaded a massive police presence for hours before he was arrested just after 9:30 pm.
Investigators are still trying to determine the motive for the attacks. Among the victims were the shooter's 16-year-old brother and an off-duty police officer.
Left narrative
The US must follow the lead of other countries and tighten its gun laws if it's ever going to reduce the number of mass shootings. There are reams of evidence to prove the fewer guns that fall into citizens’ hands, the less gun violence there is in a country. That these incidents continue to occur is unacceptable.
Right narrative
The Left’s anti-gun agenda won’t do anything to quell the violence, it’ll only infringe on the Second Amendment rights of law-abiding citizens. Tragedies like what happened in Raleigh are ripe for exploitation by those who want to take away Americans’ guns, but those same people ignore all the other types of crime and violence hurting the country.
Cynical narrative
Thursday's tragic mass shooting in Raleigh has become another violent Thursday night in America. Senseless shootings like these almost render media coverage useless because they happen so much now. While there's political leadership in North Carolina who will care, we all know nothing is really changing in society. One by one, these desensitizing incidents are slowly robbing us of our outrage, and that's a shame.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution will be amended or repealed before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.