Yemen: 'Contaminated' Medicine Kills At Least 10 Children
On Friday, officials announced that at least 10 children with leukemia died after being treated with contaminated medication in Yemen’s Houthi rebel-held capital Sanaa. They were aged between 3 and 15.
The children were among a group of 19 — with nine reportedly now in critical condition — who received the treatment at the Kuwait Hospital.
Pro-establishment narrative
While Saudi Arabia has given billions of dollars in aid to Yemen, the Iranian government has spent all its money on manufacturing weapons and prolonging this humanitarian crisis. Until the Houthi rebels choose human life over military growth, this conflict will only continue to block countless children from obtaining life-saving food and medical supplies.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's the Yemeni government and its powerful Gulf allies who have obstructed peace in Yemen and continue to punish its citizens for standing up for themselves. The Saudi coalition is behind countless war crimes against children, and its part in robbing Yemenis of essential necessities shouldn't be overlooked.
Cynical narrative
The war in Yemen, now in its eighth year, is every bit as brutal as what's taking place in Ukraine, and both sides have violated the agreed ceasefire on numerous occasions. The West's failure to address this humanitarian disaster in government and the media with any sort of urgency says a lot about the world's inherent bias and who it considers worthy and unworthy victims.
Turkey: Mine Explosion Kills 41, Injures 11
An explosion in a coal mine in northern Turkey on Friday has killed at least 41 people and injured nearly a dozen more. Authorities announced on Saturday that they were ending their efforts to rescue any stranded workers that remained in the mine.
The blast occurred in a mine located in the Black Seas town of Amasra in Bartin province. According to Turkey's Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Faith Donmez, a fire that broke out following the explosion had been largely brought under control as of Saturday. Rescuers reportedly worked through the night to rescue trapped miners.
Establishment-critical narrative
Pres. Erdogan's arrival at the scene of this tragic incident only made matters worse. His implication that a mining disaster that ended innocent lives was an inevitability of working in such a risky industry is unfathomable, ruthless, and uncaring. Erdogan's appearance was purely tactical - an attempt to bolster his image as a politician overhauling Turkey's infrastructure ahead of next year's election in the face of a blistering opposition.
Pro-establishment narrative
The government of Turkey has taken this mining tragedy seriously and seeks to prevent any further risks to workers in the industry. An investigation has been launched and, in addition to his dedicated in-person appearance, Pres. Erdogan has extended his condolences to the families of those killed. An explanation for this tragedy will be found, and this administration will use all available means to make the necessary structural changes so there is no repeat of this disaster.
Mass Protests in Paris Over Inflation, Climate, Wages
Three weeks into a refinery strike that caused fuel shortages across France, anger about inflation led tens of thousands of protesters to take to the streets of Paris on Sunday to express their frustration with the rising cost of living, climate change, and the government of Pres. Macron.
The protest organizers described the protest as a "march against the high cost of living and climate inaction." The group urged deeper investment in climate issues, emergency steps to combat inflation - including freezes in the price of energy, basic goods, and rent - and greater taxation of energy companies' massive profits.
Left narrative
Discontent is rising among French voters amid high inflation and the war in Ukraine. Sunday's march in Paris was a protest of people who are hungry, cold, worried about the environment, and want better pay. The general strike on Tuesday will hopefully whip up public opposition to pressure the government over these pressing issues.
Right narrative
French oil refineries have been shut down by striking, causing severe fuel shortages all over the country. The French government is hoping the general strike called for Tuesday will not spread to other sectors. If the left's irresponsible behavior leads to further chaos, the government might again have to use its requisition powers to force workers back to their posts.
Xi Jinping Opens China Communist Party Congress
On Sunday, Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping opened the twice-a-decade National Congress of China's ruling Communist Party in Beijing. Over 2K delegates expect to approve him for a third five-year term as chairman of the Communist Party of China (CPC) at the end of the weeklong congress.
During his opening speech, Xi emphasized ensuring China's national security and called for strengthening and modernizing the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) as part of the nation's "rejuvenation" and to protect Chinese interests.
Pro-China narrative
Given Washington's aggressive rhetoric and actions, it's understandable for Beijing to strive to rejuvenate and bring its military up to world-class standards by 2027. Contrary to Western claims, China is not seeking to dominate through military might but to protect its legitimate national interests. Unlike the US, it's not part of China's political culture to interfere militarily in the internal affairs of other states.
Anti-China narrative
China under Xi Jinping increasingly resembles a dictatorship. Not only is he responsible for China's genocide against the Uyghurs but, under his rule, Beijing is increasingly abandoning the path of a rules-based order. That he is now seeking a third term and is threatening democratic Taiwan must be a final wake-up call for Washington. Freedom-loving nations must now team up to contain PRC aggression.
US Midterms: Jill Biden Stumps for Key Campaigns
Over this past weekend, First Lady Jill Biden made three political appearances to support Democratic candidates in Georgia and Florida ahead of the midterm elections. She's considered the president's most popular stand-in for raising funds and morale as the elections approach.
On Friday, she spoke to about 75 donors to Georgia's gubernatorial challenger Stacey Abrams' One Georgia Leadership Committee, praising the candidate as a "tireless champion" of families. Early voting starts this Monday, with polls showing Republican Gov. Brian Kemp in the lead.
Democratic narrative
Jill Biden is an asset to the Democrats ahead of the midterm elections, mainly for her appeal to suburban women and working-class Americans. She isn't a polarizing political figure and can invigorate supporters in close races and fundraise. It's perfect timing for her strong push across the US.
Republican narrative
Jill Biden's dive into midterms shows the desperation of the Democrats who know they're in trouble come November. After comparing Latinos to "breakfast tacos," she failed to say "LGBTQ" twice and ironically claimed that Crist would defeat DeSantis during a low-attended rally in Orlando. Her road show forecasts that the GOP will be extremely successful in just a few weeks.
Nerd narrative
There's a 43% chance that Democrats will control the Senate and Republicans will control the House following the 2022 midterm elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 236 Roundup: Waves of Russian Drones Rock Kyiv; Energy Infrastructure Again Targeted Across Ukraine
Dozens of Russian drones struck the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on Monday morning, killing at least four civilians and injuring three others, local officials said. As civilians scurried into shelters, some images showed security forces attempting to shoot the drones down using small arms, while others captured the aftermath of the blasts.
Drone strikes were also recorded in the region of Mykolaiv, reportedly hitting industrial infrastructure facilities and a pharmaceutical warehouse. Ukrainian officials said their missile defenses shot down as many as 26 drones—reportedly Iranian Shahed-136s—across the country. On Monday, Iran repeated its denial that the nation is supplying Russia with drones.
Anti-Russia narrative
This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.
Pro-Russia narrative
NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.
Nerd narrative
There is a 1% chance that Ukraine will join the European Union before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Syria: Rebel Infighting Worsens After Truce Collapses
Infighting between rebel factions within the Syrian National Army (SNA) and Hya'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – formally known as Jabhat al-Nusra (the Syrian offshoot of al-Qaeda) – reignited on Monday following the collapse of Saturday's Turkish-sponsored ceasefire. More than a dozen have been killed in the latest bout of fighting so far, including one civilian.
Clashes first erupted on Thursday when the SNA's Third Legion accused the Hamza Division, another SNA rebel group active in northern Syria, of assassinating a prominent activist. The Levant Front, the most high-profile group within the Third Legion, attacked the Hamza Division in the city of al-Bab, leading to HTS and other Turkish-backed groups siding with Hamza.
Narrative A
HTS's attacks on Afrin and Azaz only serve to weaken the Syrian revolution and advance the interests of foreign powers, such as Russia and Iran. It seems likely this is a cynical ploy by HTS to safeguard its leadership's position in the event of a reproachment between Damascus and Ankara. HTS’s invasion of Afrin could have been reversed by Turkey—as a prior foray into Afrin’s countryside was in June—with a single phone call. Why wasn't it?
Narrative B
Infighting between SNA militias should be understood as part of Turkey’s divide and rule policy in Syria. Despite the rhetoric of SNA militias being different from HTS, these Turkish-backed factions occupying northern Syria are reactionary militants who aim to create an ultraconservative theocracy. Although originally created in opposition to the Syrian state, since being co-opted by Turkey they've focused attacks on targeting ISIS and the Kurdish-led, secular, left-wing Syrian Democratic Forces.
US Midterms: Poll Shows Economic Jitters Are Boosting GOP
According to a new New York Times/Sienna College poll released Monday, 49% of likely voters said they'd vote for a Republican for Congress compared to 45% who said they'd vote for a Democrat.
The results are a shift from the same poll last month, which had Democrats in the lead by one percentage point. The GOP has since gained ground in key Senate races in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, as well as districts in Oregon and Rhode Island.
Democratic narrative
Voters are being duped by Republican claims. For example Democrats are not soft on crime; bail reform hasn't lowered arrest rates; inflation came from COVID, not Biden; and the IRS isn't targeting the middle class - Biden is targeting the wealthy tax cheaters. The "hot button issues" are ones that Democrats have real solutions for.
Republican narrative
The economic issues referenced in these polls - all of which resulted from high energy prices - began right when Biden took office. The Democrats controlled the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives over the past two years, and none of their policies have improved the lives of American families. This sentiment for change will be reflected in November.
Nerd narrative
There is a 40% chance that Republicans will win both the House and Senate in the 2022 midterm elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Midterms: Biden to Campaign Opposite DeSantis
On Sunday, the White House announced that Pres. Biden will attend a campaign event in Florida for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist, who currently trails incumbent Republican Ron DeSantis in the polls.
Biden’s appearance will be a chance for him to show support for a key Democrat while also making his case against a potential presidential challenger in 2024, should Biden run for re-election and DeSantis toss his hat into the race.
Democratic narrative
Despite still being low, Biden’s approval numbers have crept upward lately. Having the president appear with Crist and provide free publicity could provide the Democratic candidate with a much-needed boost against DeSantis, who is winning the fundraising race by a large margin. Biden's presence in the Sunshine State means that a DeSantis victory isn't automatic.
Republican narrative
Crist can’t seem to figure out that his embrace of Biden and his policies have buried him. But if he wants to double down and let DeSantis roll to victory, he should let Biden campaign with him. This appearance will make it easier for DeSantis to tie Crist to Biden’s divisive messaging, and to his freedom-killing policies related to education, the environment, and the economy.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 92% chance DeSantis will win re-election in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Credit Suisse Pays $495M in Mortgage-Backed Securities Settlement
Credit Suisse has agreed to settle a case brought by the New Jersey Attorney General in 2013 for $495M, wrapping up a years-long case related to residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and the 2008 financial crisis.
The New Jersey Bureau of Securities originally sought $3B in damages, alleging the bank offered $10B in shoddy mortgage securities from 2006-2007 while "misrepresenting risks of the investments."
Narrative A
Between multiple failed investments and legal settlements, Switzerland's second-largest bank is running out of solutions as its capital funds and public relations continue to deteriorate. Credit Suisse isn't quite on the brink of total collapse, but the bank has absorbed virtually every negative blow possible, and it’s close to the edge.
Narrative B
Credit Suisse's sharp and rapid decline could provide a silver lining, as Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds may capitalize on the bank's current low valuation. If these funds do choose to invest, Credit Suisse could begin to rebuild its business and remake its public image.
Biden Admin Launches Student Debt Relief Website
The US Dept. of Education has launched a website that will provide $10K for a large number of borrowers who earned less than $125K in the 2020 or 2021 tax years. Pell Grant recipients can receive up to $20K of debt relief.
On Monday, Biden formally announced the launch saying, "This is a game changer for millions of Americans…and it took an incredible amount of effort to get this website done in such a short time.”
Democratic narrative
While Republicans are filing lawsuits to deny citizens vital debt relief, the Biden admin. is both providing support and making it easy to obtain. Applying is quick, requires no login, and can be done with just a social security number, birthdate, phone number, and email address – so everyone eligible should apply as soon as they get a chance. This is a massive win for borrowers.
Republican narrative
The courts will decide whether this debt-relief plan is legal. But it doesn’t take a court to see how ripe for fraud this plan is, considering the administration’s attempt to make applying "quick and easy" has dropped all guardrails. Without requiring borrowers to provide supporting documents or even their federal borrower ID number, this already costly program’s price tag will explode once the fraudsters get their hands on it. The GOP's concern has been right all along.